Match Info

Cearense - Championship Group - Round 3

Date: 7 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Presidente Vargas (Fortaleza)


	Ferroviário Fortaleza		Iguatu

	1	X	2
	2.02	3.2	3.38
	2.03	3.38	3.35	Watch
	2.05	2.9	3.3
	2.03	3.18	3.42
	2.05	3.33	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↓ (2.25)	3.2 ↑ (3.18)	3.41 ↑ (3.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ferroviário Fortaleza
44.8%

Draw
28.5%

Iguatu
26.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.4%

29.2%

29.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43%

28.1%

28.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferroviário Fortaleza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Iguatu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferroviário Fortaleza than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Iguatu than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Ferroviário Fortaleza - Iguatu Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Iguatu (1.64) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Iguatu (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
93. Sivaldo Junior (G) 2. Ramires 3. Leo Paraiso (C) 4. Iago Reis 6. Pedrinho 8. Lucas Black 16. Mena Y. 19. Rosa B. 10. Thalisson 17. Kiuan 9. Jefinho	1. Ze Rafael (G) 2. Biel Potiguar 3. Wagner Vidal 13. Joao Pedro 14. Max Oliveira 22. Talisson 20. Jeffinho 8. Caio 7. Rogerio (C) 10. Cassio Halloween 11. Tiaguinho
Substitutes
18. Camilo 7. Carlinhos 11. Felipe Sales 14. Felipinho 15. Joao Neto 13. Pablo Maldini 21. Paulo Ricardo 33. Victor Brasil (G)	17. Alison 15. Bruno Menezes 6. Eric 18. Leandrinho 9. Matheus Lima 19. Piaui 5. Victor Salvador 12. Ytalo (G) 21. Ze Oliveira

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
13', 1 - 0, Kiuan ⚽, Rosa B. (A),
30', Joao Pedro ↓, Bruno Menezes ↑,
31', Biel Potiguar 🟨,
35', Iago Reis 🟨,
39', Rosa B. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Jeffinho ↓, Matheus Lima ↑,
67', Jefinho ↓, Camilo ↑,
69', Biel Potiguar ↓, Alison ↑,
80', Rogerio ↓, Piaui ↑,
80', Talisson ↓, Ze Oliveira ↑,
82', Rosa B. ↓, Victor Diotti ↑,
82', Kiuan ↓, Carlinhos ↑,
88', Ramires 🟨,
90+1', Mena Y. ↓, Felipe Sales ↑,
90+6', 2 - 0, Carlinhos ⚽, Victor Diotti (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ferroviário won 3.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Ferroviário will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Ferroviário won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 14:8. (average 1.8:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Ferroviário won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:1. (average 2:0.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Ferroviário Fortaleza - the odds 2.25 are the expected chance of winning is 41.38%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ferroviário Fortaleza
Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
02.02.26	Floresta - Ferroviário Fortaleza	0:0 ✺
25.01.26	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Ceará	1:5 ✺
22.01.26	Quixadá - Ferroviário Fortaleza	1:2 ✺
16.01.26	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Horizonte	2:2 ✺
11.01.26	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Fortaleza	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 TLWTT
- AD Iguatu
Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
31.01.26	Fortaleza - Iguatu	1:1 ✺
27.01.26	Iguatu - Horizonte	1:1 ✺
21.01.26	Floresta - Iguatu	1:1 ✺
17.01.26	Ceará - Iguatu	1:1 ✺
14.01.26	Iguatu - Tirol	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.5 TTTTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
02.03.24	Iguatu - Ferroviário Fortaleza	1:3
24.02.24	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Iguatu	1:0
07.02.23	Iguatu - Ferroviário Fortaleza	2:1
30.01.22	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Iguatu	1:0
08.01.22	Iguatu - Ferroviário Fortaleza	1:1
16.01.19	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Iguatu	4:1
04.03.18	Iguatu - Ferroviário Fortaleza	2:2

Ferroviário Fortaleza - Iguatu: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide