Match Info

Copa do Nordeste - Round 4

Date: 15 April 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Presidente Vargas (Fortaleza)


	Ferroviário Fortaleza		Retrô Brasil

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.2	3.1	Watch
	2.08	3.15	3.15
	2.22	2.81	3.67
	1.91	3.37	3.77
	2.1	3	3.1
	2.1	2.81	3.71	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.09 ↓ (2.35)	3.06 ↑ (3.05)	3.42 ↑ (2.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ferroviário Fortaleza
43.6%

Draw
29.8%

Retrô Brasil
26.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.6%

29.7%

31.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.7%

29.6%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferroviário Fortaleza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

Retrô Brasil has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Retrô Brasil might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferroviário Fortaleza than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Retrô Brasil than the current prediction. (+5%)

Ferroviário Fortaleza - Retrô Brasil Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Victor Brasil (C) 25. Caio Bahia 9. Camilo 7. Carlinhos 2. Geo J. 8. Lucas Black 16. Mena Y. 6. Pedrinho 22. Raphael Freitas 20. Rosa B. 3. Tiago Santana	12. Jefferson Paulino (G) 3. Dankler (C) 2. David Junio 17. Diego Guerra 11. Douglas 5. Kadi Silva 9. Lira W. 6. Luiz Henrique 8. Radsley 4. Rayan Ribeiro 19. Sillas
Substitutes
14. Bruno Miranda 99. Ciel 15. Fernando Portel 5. Luan 11. Pablinho 13. Pablo Maldini 21. Paulo Ricardo 33. Silva G. (G) 93. Sivaldo Junior (G) 10. Thalisson 19. Thomas Luciano	20. Bruno Henrique 22. Bruno Marques 30. Cacau 25. Ericson 23. Fabricio Pereira 21. Guilherme 27. Leandro Kaua 18. Lucas Sampaio 28. Oliveira G. 1. Paulo Ricardo (G) 29. Rivas K. 15. Wesley Junio

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
28', 🟨,
37', 🟨,
45+4', 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
70', 🟨,
73', 🟨,
74', 🟨,
78', 🟨,
83', 1 - 0, Ciel ⚽,
84', 🟨,
85', 1 - 1, Radsley ⚽,
90+5', 🟨,

Preview

Ferroviário is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Retrô's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Retrô may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Ferroviário Fortaleza - the odds 2.35 are the expected chance of winning is 38.59%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Retrô Brasil - the odds 2.86 are the expected chance of winning is 31.67%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ferroviário Fortaleza
Brazilian Serie D
11.04.26	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Tirol	3:2 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
07.04.26	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Jacuipense	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie D
04.04.26	Fluminense Piaui - Ferroviário Fortaleza	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
28.03.26	Maranhão - Ferroviário Fortaleza	2:3 ✺
24.03.26	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Fortaleza	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.9 WWWWL
- Retrô Brasil
Brazilian Serie D
12.04.26	Retrô Brasil - Serra Branca	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
08.04.26	Sport Recife - Retrô Brasil	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie D
04.04.26	Treze - Retrô Brasil	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
28.03.26	Retrô Brasil - Ceará	3:1 ✺
24.03.26	Imperatriz de Desportos - Retrô Brasil	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 TLLWW

Ferroviário Fortaleza - Retrô Brasil: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide