Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 37

Date: 16 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Dr. Adhemar de Barros (Sao Paulo)

Referee: do Nascimento W. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Ferroviária		Athletico Paranaense

	1	X	2
	4.5	3.5	1.76	Watch
	4.25	3.45	1.8
	4.37	3.64	1.81
	3.75	3.23	1.97	Watch
	4.29	3.48	1.81
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.23 ↑ (3.98)	3.46 ↑ (3.28)	1.83 ↓ (1.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ferroviária
22%

Draw
27%

Athletico Paranaense
51%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23%

28%

49%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23%

28%

49%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferroviária has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Athletico Paranaense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ferroviária than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Athletico Paranaense than the current prediction. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	13.3%	86.7%

Ferroviária - Athletico Paranaense Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Athletico Paranaense will win (12 of 14 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.38% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Athletico Paranaense will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Denis Junior (G) 2. Lucas Rodrigues 13. Gustavo Medina 83. Erik Nascimento 31. Ze Mario 8. Alencar 5. Ricardinho (C) 35. Netinho 92. Carlao 10. Fabricio Daniel 77. Juninho	23. Santos (C) 29. Benavidez G. 13. Teran C. 65. Arthur Dias 61. Leo Derik 10. Zapelli B. 5. Felipinho 88. Patrick 17. Mendoza S. 9. Viveros K. 20. Julimar
Substitutes
20. Albano 14. Eric Melo 80. Fabio 95. Filipe Costa (G) 25. Ian Luccas 7. Kevin 22. Ronaldo Alves 29. Tarik 37. Thiago Lopes 23. Thiago M. 4. Vitor Mendes 17. Ze Hugo	33. Aguirre Tabares J. F. 27. Alan Kardec 8. Giuliano 57. Joao Cruz 3. Leo 21. Leozinho 19. Luiz Fernando 22. Madson 1. Mycael (G) 31. Raul 70. Renan Peixoto 7. Velasco K.
Coaches
Daniel Azambuja	Hellmann O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
3', Netinho 🟨,
10', Benavidez G. 🟨,
30', Felipinho 🟨,
37', Viveros K. 🟨,
45+5', Leo Derik ↓, Leozinho ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Juninho ↓, Thiago Lopes ↑,
68', Lucas Rodrigues ↓, Kevin ↑,
68', Fabricio Daniel ↓, Fabio ↑,
68', Erik Nascimento ↓, Vitor Mendes ↑,
73', 1 - 0, Fabio ⚽,
78', Felipinho ↓, Joao Cruz ↑,
78', Mendoza S. ↓, Renan Peixoto ↑,
85', Patrick ↓, Luiz Fernando ↑,
85', 1 - 1, Joao Cruz ⚽,
89', Netinho ↓, Ze Hugo ↑,
89', Fabio 🟨,
90+3', Leozinho 🟨,
90+6', 1 - 2, Renan Peixoto ⚽,
90+7', 🟥,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A Betano).

In recent matches, Ferroviária has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Athletico PR is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Athletico PR is the team to beat.

There will not play in Ferroviária: Gustavo Jundi (Injury) Gustavo Medina (Thigh Injury) Ronaldo (Inactive) Thayllon (Injury) Vitor Barreto (Red Card)

There will not play in Athletico PR: Dudu Kogitzki (Inactive) Esquivel L. (Inactive) Isaac (Knee Injury) Renan Peixoto (Knee Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Ferroviária won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Associação Ferroviária de Esportes
Brazilian Serie B
07.11.25	Athletic Club - Ferroviária	2:1 ✺
31.10.25	Ferroviária - Criciúma	0:0 ✺
26.10.25	Vila Nova - Ferroviária	2:2 ✺
20.10.25	Ferroviária - Paysandu	2:2 ✺
13.10.25	CRB Maceio - Ferroviária	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 LTTTT
- Athletico Paranaense
Brazilian Serie B
08.11.25	Athletico Paranaense - Volta Redonda	2:0 ✺
01.11.25	Goiás - Athletico Paranaense	0:1 ✺
27.10.25	Athletico Paranaense - Amazonas	2:0 ✺
19.10.25	Coritiba - Athletico Paranaense	0:0 ✺
14.10.25	Athletico Paranaense - Avaí	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WWWTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
22.07.25	Athletico Paranaense - Ferroviária	1:1

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