Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 31

Date: 9 October 2025, Thursday

Location: Arena Fonte Luminosa (Araraquara)

Referee: Lima Barbosa M. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+, ESPN 3


	Ferroviária		Chapecoense

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.2	3.1	Watch
	2.4	3.1	2.8
	2.28	3.05	3.15
	2.38	3.23	3.22
	2.22	3.08	3.22	Watch
	2.36	3.15	3.05	Watch
	2.4	3.1	2.92
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.34 ↓ (2.38)	3.13 ↓ (3.25)	3.07 ↑ (2.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ferroviária
39.8%

Draw
29.8%

Chapecoense
30.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.8%

28.4%

32.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.7%

27.6%

33.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferroviária has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Chapecoense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferroviária than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chapecoense than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	25%	37.5%

Ferroviária - Chapecoense Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Ferroviária will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Chapecoense will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ferroviária: 4% – 71%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ferroviária (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Denis Junior (G) 2. Lucas Rodrigues 22. Ronaldo Alves (C) 13. Gustavo Medina 31. Ze Mario 5. Ricardinho 35. Netinho 20. Albano 37. Thiago Lopes 92. Carlao 11. Vitor Barreto	1. Rafael Santos (G) 3. Eduardo Doma 33. Bruno Leonardo (C) 25. Victor Caetano 37. Clar W. 19. David Antunes 99. Rafael Carvalheira 48. Pedro Martins 10. Giovanni Augusto 7. Marcinho 9. Pedro Perotti
Substitutes
53. David 83. Erik Nascimento 95. Filipe Costa (G) 27. Hernani 30. Jhonatan Garcia 43. Joao Ramos 7. Kevin 44. Maycon 9. Ronaldo 29. Tarik 4. Vitor Mendes 17. Ze Hugo	27. Eduardo Person 26. Everton 76. Felipe Vieira 2. Gabriel Inocencio 77. Italo 5. Jorge Jimenez 21. Kauan 12. Leo Vieira (G) 90. Mailson 95. Marcinho 18. Neto Pessoa
Coaches
Claudinei Oliveira	Gilmar Pozzo

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
12', Netinho 🟨,
34', Ricardinho 🟨,
36', David Antunes 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', David Antunes ↓, Everton ↑,
57', Marcinho 🟨,
57', Marcinho ↓, Italo ↑,
58', Vitor Barreto ↓, Hernani ↑,
68', Pedro Perotti ↓, Neto Pessoa ↑,
68', Pedro Martins ↓, Jorge Jimenez ↑,
71', 0 - 1, Neto Pessoa ⚽,
74', Italo 🟨,
74', Albano ↓, Ronaldo ↑,
75', Netinho ↓, Tarik ↑,
83', Ronaldo 🟨,
87', Giovanni Augusto ↓, Marcinho ↑,
88', Lucas Rodrigues ↓, Kevin ↑,
88', Thiago Lopes ↓, Ze Hugo ↑,
90+3', Bruno Leonardo 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 16 and 6).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Chapecoense may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Ferroviária: Alencar (Yellow Cards) Denilson (Knee Injury) Edson Lucas (Yellow Cards) Eric Melo (Injury) Gustavo Jundi (Injury)

There will not play in Chapecoense: Bressan (Injury) Bruno Matias (Knee Injury) Mancha (Knee Injury) Vinicius Balieiro (Inactive)

There are questionable in Ferroviária: Juninho (Injury) Thayllon (Injury)

There are questionable in Chapecoense: David Antunes (Injury) Getulio (Injury) Marlon (Inactive)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Ferroviária won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Ferroviária - the odds 2.38 are the expected chance of winning is 38.82%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Associação Ferroviária de Esportes
Brazilian Serie B
04.10.25	Ferroviária - América Mineiro	1:3 ✺
28.09.25	Botafogo SP - Ferroviária	1:2 ✺
23.09.25	Ferroviária - Goiás	1:1 ✺
20.09.25	Avaí - Ferroviária	2:2 ✺
15.09.25	Ferroviária - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 LWTTL
- Chapecoense-SC
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
06.10.25	Brusque - Chapecoense	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
04.10.25	Chapecoense - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:0 ✺
29.09.25	Amazonas - Chapecoense	1:3 ✺
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
28.09.25	Chapecoense - Santa Catarina	0:3 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
25.09.25	Chapecoense - Avaí	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 TWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
16.06.25	Chapecoense - Ferroviária	2:1

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