Match Info

Division 1 - Round 20

Date: 23 June 2025, Monday

Location: Finn Park (Ballybofey)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ireland	LOI TV


	Finn Harps		Dundalk

	1	X	2
	6.5	4.5	1.36
	5.4	4.38	1.55
				Watch
	7	4.4	1.36
	5.43	4.25	1.51
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.08 ↓ (7.72)	4.38 ↓ (5.16)	1.45 ↑ (1.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Finn Harps
15.2%

Draw
21%

Dundalk
63.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

12%

17.9%

70.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

11.6%

17.3%

72.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Finn Harps has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

Dundalk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Dundalk might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Finn Harps than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dundalk than the current prediction. (+8.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Dundalk could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10%	0%	90%

Finn Harps - Dundalk Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Finn Harps (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Dundalk (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Dundalk (1.47) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1 - Finn Harps (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Dundalk will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.41% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Finn Harps (votes: 3 - 60%). Dundalk (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Sheridan C. (G) 6. Bradley-Walsh J. 3. Jordan K. 12. Cullen J. 10. McNamee T. (C) 23. Gilmore G. 20. Place M. 8. Hutchison M. 21. Thompson J. 7. Tourish C. 30. Lomboto G.	1. Minogue E. (G) 12. Mulligan L. 15. Leonard V. 4. Animasahun M. 3. Keogh S. 6. Dervin A. 8. Groome H. 10. Gaxha L. 23. Paraschiv A. 7. Horgan D. (C) 16. Kenny E.
Substitutes
26. Bradley S. 1. Cooney O. (G) 33. Cunningham D. 11. McAteer G. 42. Mccormick S. 24. McDaid A. 17. McGranaghan C. 66. Oduwa W. 31. O'Gara S. (G)	18. Cherrie P. (G) 9. Ebbe D. 5. McHale S. . Molloy T. 19. Spaight S. 26. Tracey S. 17. Ward K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
28', Lomboto G. 🟨,
32', Jordan K. 🟨,
43', Place M. 🟨,
45+4', Leonard V. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Dervin A. ↓, Tracey S. ↑,
49', Thompson J. 🟨,
62', 1 - 0, Lomboto G. (Pen),
65', Paraschiv A. ↓, Ward K. ↑,
65', Mulligan L. ↓, Ebbe D. ↑,
75', Jordan K. ↓, McAteer G. ↑,
88', Gaxha L. ↓, McHale S. ↑,
90+6', Tracey S. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Finn Harps won 0.

Recent form of Finn Harps has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Dundalk is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Dundalk is the clear favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Finn Harps won 1 match, drew 7 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 12:40. (average 0.6:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Finn Harps won 0 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 8:18. (average 0.9:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Finn Harps
Irish Division 1
20.06.25	Athlone Town - Finn Harps	0:0 ✺
13.06.25	Finn Harps - Wexford	1:1 ✺
30.05.25	Bray Wanderers - Finn Harps	3:1 ✺
23.05.25	Finn Harps - University College Dublin	1:2 ✺
17.05.25	Longford Town - Finn Harps	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 TTLLT
- Dundalk FC
Irish Division 1
20.06.25	Dundalk - Treaty United	1:1 ✺
13.06.25	Dundalk - University College Dublin	1:1 ✺
30.05.25	Wexford - Dundalk	2:3 ✺
23.05.25	Dundalk - Kerry	2:0 ✺
16.05.25	Cobh Ramblers - Dundalk	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 TTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Irish Division 1
21.04.25	Dundalk - Finn Harps	1:1
21.02.25	Finn Harps - Dundalk	0:1
Club Friendly
20.01.23	Dundalk - Finn Harps	0:0
Irish Premier Division
14.10.22	Finn Harps - Dundalk	1:2
22.07.22	Dundalk - Finn Harps	3:0
23.05.22	Finn Harps - Dundalk	0:1
28.02.22	Dundalk - Finn Harps	3:0

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