Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie A - Round 18

Date: 20 July 2024, Saturday

Location: Estádio Nacional Mané Garrincha (Brasília)

Referee: Lima Barbosa M. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belarus	Belarus 5
Brazil	Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Chile	MEGOGO
Israel	Sport 3
Portugal	Canal 11
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 2, Sportbox.ru
Spain	Gol Stadium
Turkey	Spor Smart 2
Ukraine	Sport 1
World	Amazon Prime Video, Fanatiz


	Flamengo		Criciúma

	1	X	2
	1.4	4.75	8	Watch
	1.42	4.6	7.5
	1.38	4.75	8
	1.41	4.68	8.44
	1.43	4.6	7.37	Watch
	1.4	4.4	7
	1.42	4.7	7.4	Watch
	1.39	4.6	7.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.41 ↑ (1.32)	4.64 ↓ (5)	7.64 ↓ (9.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Flamengo
67.2%

Draw
20.4%

Criciúma
12.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71.3%

18.8%

9.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

76.6%

17.5%

9.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Flamengo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Criciúma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Flamengo than the current prediction. (+9.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Flamengo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Criciúma than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.2%	3.1%	15.6%

Flamengo - Criciúma Predictions

Users Predictions: Flamengo will win (26 of 32 users predict this - 81.25%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.73% – 94.77%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rossi A. (G) 43. Wesley 15. Fabricio Bruno 23. David Luiz 6. Ayrton Lucas 5. Pulgar E. 18. de la Cruz N. 8. Gerson (C) 14. de Arrascaeta G. 11. Everton 9. Pedro	1. Gustavo (G) 27. Claudinho 3. Rodrigo (C) 4. Angel W. 14. Trauco M. 88. Gustavo Barreto 8. Newton 2. Allano 7. Fellipe Mateus 22. Marcelo Hermes 45. Arthur Caike
Substitutes
22. Carlinhos 52. Evertton 99. Gabriel Barbosa 48. Igor Jesus 3. Leo Ortiz 4. Leo Pereira 7. Luiz Araujo 25. Matheus Cunha (G) 20. Matheus Goncalves 2. Varela G. 29. Victor Hugo 17. Vina M.	25. Alisson (G) 11. Bolasie Y. 23. Citadin E. 15. Eliedson 9. Felipe Vizeu 29. Figueiredo T. 5. Higor Meritao 13. Jonathan 10. Marquinhos Gabriel 6. Ronald Lopes 32. Teixeira M. (G) 33. Walisson Maia
Coaches
Tite	Claudio Tencati

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
35', 0 - 1, Rodrigo ⚽,
39', Rodrigo 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
47', Claudinho 🟨,
50', David Luiz 🟨,
55', David Luiz ↓, Leo Pereira ↑,
55', Ayrton Lucas ↓, Vina M. ↑,
62', Alisson 🟨,
62', Allano 🟨,
64', Pedro (Pen),
69', Pulgar E. ↓, Luiz Araujo ↑,
70', Claudinho ↓, Jonathan ↑,
71', Vina M. 🟨,
74', Arthur Caike ↓, Felipe Vizeu ↑,
75', Allano ↓, Ronald Lopes ↑,
76', 1 - 1, Pedro ⚽, de Arrascaeta G. (A),
77', Gerson ↓, Gabriel Barbosa ↑,
81', Felipe Vizeu ↓, Citadin E. ↑,
82', Trauco M. ↓, Figueiredo T. ↑,
87', Gustavo Barreto 🟨,
89', 2 - 1, Gabriel Barbosa (Pen),
90', Gabriel Barbosa 🟨,
90+1', Allano 🟨,
90+3', Fellipe Mateus 🟨,
90+5', Everton 🟨,

Preview

One of which is a team leader another one is from mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 14).

Two teams are playing changeable.

Criciúma could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Flamengo is indisputable favorite.

There will not play in Flamengo: Everton (Injury)

There will not play in Criciúma: Jonathan (Injury)

Last 4 head-to-head matches Flamengo won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 10-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Flamengo won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Flamengo RJ
Brazilian Serie A
11.07.24	Flamengo - Fortaleza	1:2 ✺
06.07.24	Flamengo - Cuiabá	1:1 ✺
03.07.24	Atlético Mineiro - Flamengo	2:4 ✺
30.06.24	Flamengo - Cruzeiro	2:1 ✺
26.06.24	Juventude - Flamengo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LTWWL
- Criciúma EC
Brazilian Serie A
16.07.24	Corinthians - Criciúma	2:1 ✺
11.07.24	Criciúma - Fluminense	1:1 ✺
07.07.24	Vitória Salvador - Criciúma	2:1 ✺
03.07.24	Criciúma - Cruzeiro	1:0 ✺
30.06.24	Criciúma - Internacional RS	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LTLWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
23.11.14	Flamengo - Criciúma	1:1
24.08.14	Criciúma - Flamengo	0:2
29.09.13	Flamengo - Criciúma	4:1
08.06.13	Criciúma - Flamengo	0:3

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