Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 11

Date: 1 June 2025, Sunday

Location: Maracanã (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Bauermann G. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball


	Flamengo		Fortaleza

	1	X	2
	1.33	5	9
	1.36	4.8	9
	1.38	4.5	8.5	Watch
	1.39	4.76	8.94
	1.39	4.58	8.95	Watch
	1.36	4.5	8
	1.39	4.7	8.3	Watch
	1.38	4.5	8.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.37 ↓ (1.52)	4.67 ↑ (4.08)	8.65 ↑ (6.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Flamengo
68.8%

Draw
20.2%

Fortaleza
10.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.3%

23.2%

14.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.7%

22.7%

14.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Flamengo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Flamengo's performance.

Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Flamengo than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Flamengo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
91.7%	0%	8.3%

Flamengo - Fortaleza Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Flamengo (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

1X2, 1st Half - Flamengo (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.25 - Flamengo (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Flamengo will win (11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.03% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Flamengo (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rossi A. (G) 2. Varela G. 3. Leo Ortiz 13. Danilo 26. Alex Sandro 8. Gerson (C) 52. Evertton Araujo 7. Luiz Araujo 10. de Arrascaeta G. 11. Everton 27. Bruno Henrique	1. Joao Ricardo (G) 2. Tinga 13. Kuscevic B. 39. Gustavo Mancha 14. Mancuso E. 17. Ze Welison 8. Emmanuel Martinez 7. Pochettino T. 11. Marinho 18. Deyverson 38. Lucca Prior
Substitutes
6. Ayrton Lucas 61. Joao Victor 23. Juninho 4. Leo Pereira 25. Matheus Cunha (G) 20. Matheus Goncalves 30. Michael 9. Pedro 5. Pulgar E. 17. Vina M. 64. Wallace Yan 43. Wesley Franca	77. Andrade K. 3. Avila G. 12. Brenno (G) 26. Breno Lopes 33. Britez E. 10. Calebe 23. David Luiz 9. Lucero J. 43. Luquinhas 29. Rodrigo 4. Titi 22. Yago Pikachu
Coaches
Filipe Luis	Vojvoda J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
19', Alex Sandro 🟨,
30', 1 - 0, de Arrascaeta G. ⚽, Leo Ortiz (A),
2nd Half (4 - 0)
48', 2 - 0, Evertton Araujo ⚽, Varela G. (A),
56', 3 - 0, Luiz Araujo ⚽, de Arrascaeta G. (A),
59', de Arrascaeta G. ↓, Pulgar E. ↑,
59', Bruno Henrique ↓, Pedro ↑,
59', Everton ↓, Michael ↑,
64', Pochettino T. ↓, Yago Pikachu ↑,
64', Deyverson ↓, Lucero J. ↑,
64', Lucca Prior ↓, Breno Lopes ↑,
67', Ze Welison 🟨,
71', 4 - 0, Michael ⚽, Varela G. (A),
74', 5 - 0, Luiz Araujo ⚽, Pedro (A),
79', Luiz Araujo ↓, Juninho ↑,
79', Mancuso E. ↓, Avila G. ↑,
79', Marinho ↓, Rodrigo ↑,
84', Alex Sandro ↓, Vina M. ↑,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Flamengo won 2.

Flamengo has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Fortaleza has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Fortaleza may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Flamengo has had a series of home games.

In this match, Flamengo is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Flamengo: Plata G. (Knee Injury) Pulgar E. (Hamstring Injury) Vina M. (Knee Injury) de la Cruz N. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Fortaleza: Bruninho (Inactive) Diogo Barbosa (Inactive) Fernandez P. (Inactive) Lucas Sasha (Forearm injury) Moises (Thigh Injury) Pedro Augusto (Red Card)

There are questionable in Fortaleza: Matheus Rossetto (Injury) Pedro Augusto (Injury) Rodrigo (Lacking Match Fitness)

We predict that Flamengo will win today's game, with odds of 1.39.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Flamengo won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 21:14. (average 1.5:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Flamengo won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:8. (average 1.6:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Flamengo RJ
Copa Libertadores
28.05.25	Flamengo - Deportivo Táchira	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
25.05.25	Palmeiras - Flamengo	0:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
21.05.25	Flamengo - Botafogo PB	4:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
18.05.25	Flamengo - Botafogo RJ	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
15.05.25	Flamengo - LDU Quito	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WWWTW
- Fortaleza EC
Copa Libertadores
29.05.25	Racing - Fortaleza	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
25.05.25	Fortaleza - Cruzeiro	0:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
21.05.25	Fortaleza - Retrô Brasil	1:2 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
17.05.25	Vasco da Gama - Fortaleza	3:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
13.05.25	Fortaleza - Atlético Bucaramanga	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
26.11.24	Fortaleza - Flamengo	0:0
11.07.24	Flamengo - Fortaleza	1:2
05.11.23	Fortaleza - Flamengo	0:2
01.07.23	Flamengo - Fortaleza	2:0
28.09.22	Fortaleza - Flamengo	3:2
05.06.22	Flamengo - Fortaleza	1:2
09.10.21	Fortaleza - Flamengo	0:3

Upcoming Matches