Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie A - Round 17

Date: 16 July 2024, Tuesday

Location: Neo Quimica Arena (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Pinheiro J. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Chile	MEGOGO
World	Amazon Prime Video


	Corinthians		Criciúma

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.4	4.5
	1.87	3.5	4.2
	1.87	3.5	4.2
	1.87	3.54	4.59
	1.91	3.46	4.23	Watch
	1.83	3.4	4.2
	1.89	3.48	4.25	Watch
	1.83	3.35	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↑ (1.71)	3.45 ↓ (3.55)	4.32 ↓ (5.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Corinthians
50.7%

Draw
27.4%

Criciúma
21.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55%

26.5%

18.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.6%

26.8%

18.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Corinthians has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Criciúma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Corinthians than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Criciúma than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
63.2%	21.1%	15.8%

Corinthians - Criciúma Predictions

Users Predictions: 37 users predict this event. Corinthians will win (votes: 23 - 62.2%). Criciúma will win (votes: 6 - 16.2%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 21.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Corinthians: 46.6% – 77.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hugo Souza (G) 2. Matheus Franca 25. Caca 13. Gustavo Henrique 46. Hugo 14. Raniele 80. Alex Santana 11. Angel Romero (C) 10. Garro R. 36. Wesley 9. Yuri Alberto	1. Gustavo (G) 27. Claudinho 3. Rodrigo (C) 4. Angel W. 22. Marcelo Hermes 17. Matheusinho 8. Newton 88. Gustavo Barreto 7. Fellipe Mateus 45. Arthur Caike 23. Citadin E.
Substitutes
27. Breno Bidon 4. Caetano 23. Fagner 17. Giovane 26. Guilherme Biro 77. Igor Coronado 30. Matheus Araujo 21. Matheus Bidu 32. Matheus Donelli (G) 20. Pedro Raul 37. Ryan 3. Torres F.	25. Alisson (G) 2. Allano 11. Bolasie Y. 15. Eliedson 9. Felipe Vizeu 29. Figueiredo T. 5. Higor Meritao 10. Marquinhos Gabriel 6. Ronald Lopes 32. Teixeira M. (G) 14. Trauco M. 33. Walisson Maia
Coaches
Laruccia R.	Claudio Tencati

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
41', 0 - 1, Claudinho ⚽, Matheusinho (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
54', 1 - 1, Angel Romero ⚽, Hugo (A),
56', Wesley ↓, Igor Coronado ↑,
59', Matheusinho ↓, Allano ↑,
59', Citadin E. ↓, Ronald Lopes ↑,
62', 2 - 1, Caca ⚽, Igor Coronado (A),
67', Raniele 🟨,
75', Arthur Caike ↓, Felipe Vizeu ↑,
75', Fellipe Mateus ↓, Bolasie Y. ↑,
79', Matheus Franca ↓, Torres F. ↑,
79', Garro R. ↓, Ryan ↑,
82', Marcelo Hermes ↓, Trauco M. ↑,
85', Angel Romero ↓, Fagner ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B and 14).

Corinthians is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Criciúma is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Corinthians is a favorite.

There will not play in Corinthians: Fagner (Injury) Palacios D. (Injury) Ruan Oliveira (Injury)

There will not play in Criciúma: Jonathan (Injury)

Last 4 head-to-head matches Corinthians won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5-1.

Including matches at home between the teams Corinthians won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Corinthians
Brazilian Serie A
10.07.24	Vasco da Gama - Corinthians	2:0 ✺
07.07.24	Cruzeiro - Corinthians	3:0 ✺
04.07.24	Corinthians - Vitória Salvador	3:2 ✺
01.07.24	Palmeiras - Corinthians	2:0 ✺
26.06.24	Corinthians - Cuiabá	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 LLWLT
- Criciúma EC
Brazilian Serie A
11.07.24	Criciúma - Fluminense	1:1 ✺
07.07.24	Vitória Salvador - Criciúma	2:1 ✺
03.07.24	Criciúma - Cruzeiro	1:0 ✺
30.06.24	Criciúma - Internacional RS	1:1 ✺
27.06.24	São Paulo - Criciúma	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 TLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
06.12.14	Corinthians - Criciúma	2:1
07.09.14	Criciúma - Corinthians	0:0
19.10.13	Corinthians - Criciúma	1:0
04.08.13	Criciúma - Corinthians	0:2

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