Match Info

Date: 19 June 2022, Sunday

Location: Maracanã (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Toski M. R. (Bra)


	Fluminense		Avaí

	1	X	2
	1.66	3.5	5.75
	1.66	3.5	5.75
	1.67	3.5	5.25
	1.64	3.45	5.6
	1.66	3.72	6
	1.65	3.4	5.5	Watch
	1.61	3.8	6.05	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↑ (1.56)	3.55 ↓ (3.81)	5.7 ↓ (6.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fluminense
57%

Draw
26.5%

Avaí
16.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.6%

24.9%

14.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.5%

24.1%

14.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fluminense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

Avaí has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fluminense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Avaí than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
68.4%	26.3%	5.3%

Fluminense - Avaí Predictions

Users Predictions: 38 users predict this event. Fluminense will win (votes: 26 - 68.4%). Avaí will win (votes: 2 - 5.3%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 26.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fluminense: 53.6% – 83.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Let's enjoy game between two mid-table teams (ranked 12 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage) and 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)).

Fluminense has the most likely position - 7 (7.07%), has project points - 53, has currently - 15, has a small chance of relegated (10%), has a very small chance of win league (2%).

Avaí has the most likely position - 16 (8.4%), has project points - 46, has currently - 17, has a chance of relegated (27%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 46, small importance 29, match rating 37. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Fluminense won 1.

Fluminense is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Avaí is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Avaí could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Fluminense is a favorite.

There will not play in Fluminense: Fred (Injury)

There will not play in Avaí: Jean Pyerre (Injury)

Last 8 head-to-head matches Fluminense won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 9-7.

Including matches at home between the teams Fluminense won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 5-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fluminense RJ
Brazilian Serie A
15.06.22	América Mineiro - Fluminense	0:0 ✺
11.06.22	Fluminense - Atlético Goianiense	0:2 ✺
08.06.22	Fluminense - Atlético Mineiro	5:3 ✺
05.06.22	Juventude - Fluminense	1:0 ✺
29.05.22	Fluminense - Flamengo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 TLWLL
- Avaí
Brazilian Serie A
16.06.22	Avaí - Fortaleza	3:2 ✺
13.06.22	Botafogo RJ - Avaí	0:1 ✺
08.06.22	Atlético Goianiense - Avaí	2:1 ✺
04.06.22	Avaí - São Paulo	1:1 ✺
29.05.22	Atlético Mineiro - Avaí	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 WWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
01.12.19	Avaí - Fluminense	1:1
02.09.19	Fluminense - Avaí	0:1
Copa do Brasil
15.03.18	Avaí - Fluminense	1:0
01.03.18	Fluminense - Avaí	1:2
Brazilian Serie A
15.10.17	Fluminense - Avaí	1:0
21.06.17	Avaí - Fluminense	0:3
22.11.15	Fluminense - Avaí	3:1

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