Match Info

Carioca - Taca Guanabara - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 16 February 2026, Monday

Location: Maracanã (Rio de Janeiro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Fluminense		Bangu

	1	X	2
	1.2	7	12.5
	1.18	6.3	12.5
	1.16	6.6	13.76
	1.2	6.02	14.29
	1.18	5.5	13
	1.14	6	14.2
	1.2	6.5	14
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.18 ↓ (1.2)	6.27 ↑ (5.56)	13.46 ↓ (14.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fluminense
78.4%

Draw
14.7%

Bangu
6.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

77%

16.6%

6.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fluminense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Bangu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Fluminense - Bangu Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Fluminense (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2 - Fluminense (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Fluminense (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fabio (C) 23. Guga 4. Ignacio 22. Freytes J. 6. Rene 5. Bernal F. 8. Martinelli 11. Savarino J. 10. PH Ganso 17. Canobbio A. 9. John Kennedy	31. Bruno (G) 2. Dudu 3. Gilberto 4. Patrick 6. Bruno Boca 5. Dioguinho 8. Mauro (C) 11. Lucas Sibito 10. Walber 7. Garrinsha 9. Patryck
Substitutes
32. Acosta L. 21. Igor Rabello 3. Jemmes 46. Julio Fidelis 39. Keven Samuel 27. Marcelo Pitaluga (G) 15. Matheus Reis 30. Moreno S. 94. Otavio 2. Samuel Xavier 90. Serna K. 7. Soteldo Y.	14. Caio Felipe 1. Diego (G) 21. Douglas Lima 19. Italo 13. Kadu 22. Kauan Guilherme 17. Luizinho 20. Marcelinho 23. Paulo Vitor 15. Pedro China 16. Ricardo Sena 18. Welington Zaru
Coaches
Zubeldia L.	Tinoco

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
35', 1 - 0, Savarino J. ⚽, Guga (A),
40', 2 - 0, Canobbio A. ⚽, Bernal F. (A),
42', Patryck 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Lucas Sibito ↓, Luizinho ↑,
57', Bruno Boca ↓, Ricardo Sena ↑,
58', Garrinsha ↓, Welington Zaru ↑,
66', Martinelli ↓, Acosta L. ↑,
67', John Kennedy ↓, Serna K. ↑,
70', Dudu 🟨,
72', Canobbio A. ↓, Moreno S. ↑,
72', Savarino J. ↓, Soteldo Y. ↑,
72', Dioguinho ↓, Pedro China ↑,
79', 3 - 0, PH Ganso (Penalty Awarded),
81', Mauro ↓, Kauan Guilherme ↑,
82', PH Ganso ↓, Otavio ↑,
82', 3 - 1, Ricardo Sena ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fluminense won 4.

Fluminense is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Bangu has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Bangu may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Fluminense is the obvious favorite.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Fluminense won 12 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 34:6. (average 2.6:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Fluminense won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 15:5. (average 2.5:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fluminense RJ
Brazilian Serie A
12.02.26	Fluminense - Botafogo RJ	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
08.02.26	Fluminense - Maricá	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
05.02.26	Bahia - Fluminense	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
01.02.26	Botafogo RJ - Fluminense	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
28.01.26	Fluminense - Grêmio	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 WWTWW
- Bangu AC
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
07.02.26	Bangu - Boavista	1:1 ✺
30.01.26	Nova Iguaçu - Bangu	1:2 ✺
24.01.26	Botafogo RJ - Bangu	2:0 ✺
21.01.26	Maricá - Bangu	1:2 ✺
17.01.26	Bangu - Madureira	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.7 TWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
23.02.25	Fluminense - Bangu	3:2
01.02.24	Fluminense - Bangu	4:1
04.03.23	Bangu - Fluminense	0:5
27.01.22	Fluminense - Bangu	0:1
20.03.21	Bangu - Fluminense	0:1
26.01.20	Bangu - Fluminense	1:5
22.02.19	Bangu - Fluminense	0:2

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