Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 5

Date: 16 May 2024, Thursday

Location: Maracanã (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Herrera D. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Brazil	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport
Netherlands	ESPN
Portugal	Sport TV2
Serbia	Arena Sport


	Fluminense		Cerro Porteño

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.5	5.5	Watch
	1.71	3.4	5
	1.65	3.6	5.5	Watch
	1.76	3.5	5.4
	1.77	3.5	5.25
	1.65	3.4	5	Watch
	1.74	3.6	5.26	Watch
	1.67	3.45	5.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↑ (1.34)	3.49 ↓ (4.53)	5.26 ↓ (9.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fluminense
55.2%

Draw
26.9%

Cerro Porteño
17.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.7%

20.5%

9.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.4%

17.2%

11.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fluminense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Fluminense's form might have worsened.

Cerro Porteño has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Cerro Porteño's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerro Porteño than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Cerro Porteño, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	16.7%	50%

Fluminense - Cerro Porteño Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Fluminense will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). Cerro Porteño will win (votes: 6 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cerro Porteño: 21.7% – 78.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fabio (C) 23. Guga 25. Antonio Carlos 45. Lima 12. Marcelo 5. Alexsander 8. Martinelli 21. Arias J. 10. PH Ganso 11. Keno 14. Cano G.	13. Jean (G) 2. Benitez A. 4. Eduardo Brock 24. Baez C. 21. Arzamendia S. 11. Iturbe J. 6. Carrascal R. 26. Piris R. 10. Dominguez C. 20. Viera W. 19. Diego Churin (C)
Substitutes
19. Alexandre Jesus 28. Arthur 31. Calegari 80. David Terans 6. Diogo Barbosa 27. Felipe Alves (G) 13. Felipe Andrade 22. Gabriel Pires 32. Isaac 9. John Kennedy 17. Lucumi J. 20. Renato Augusto	17. Aguayo G. 34. Benitez M. 32. Cabanas V. 8. Carrizo F. 35. De Jesus R. 40. Fernandez F. 7. Gimenez E. 1. Martin A. (G) 5. Morel J. 16. Paez Torales E. R. 39. Portillo Avalos T. G. 27. Riveros L.
Coaches
Fernando Diniz	Jimenez M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
14', 1 - 0, Marcelo ⚽, Antonio Carlos (A),
19', 1 - 1, Viera W. ⚽, Piris R. (A),
34', Baez C. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
65', Diego Churin ↓, Portillo Avalos T. G. ↑,
65', Carrascal R. ↓, Morel J. ↑,
70', Baez C. 🟨,
74', 2 - 1, PH Ganso ⚽, Guga (A),
75', Dominguez C. ↓, De Jesus R. ↑,
75', Iturbe J. ↓, Carrizo F. ↑,
75', Martinelli 🟨,
79', Cano G. ↓, John Kennedy ↑,
81', Guga ↓, Renato Augusto ↑,
81', PH Ganso ↓, Felipe Andrade ↑,
84', Viera W. ↓, Aguayo G. ↑,
90', De Jesus R. 🟨,
90+2', Keno ↓, Isaac ↑,
90+3', Piris R. 🟨,

Preview

Recent matches Fluminense is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Cerro Porteño is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Cerro Porteño could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Fluminense have a series of guest games.

In this match Fluminense is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Fluminense won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-0.

Including matches at home between the teams Fluminense won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fluminense RJ
Brazilian Serie A
13.05.24	São Paulo - Fluminense	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
09.05.24	Colo-Colo - Fluminense	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
04.05.24	Fluminense - Atlético Mineiro	2:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
01.05.24	Sampaio Corrêa - Fluminense	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
28.04.24	Corinthians - Fluminense	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LWTWL
- Cerro Porteño
Paraguayan Primera Division
12.05.24	Cerro Porteño - Olimpia Asuncion	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
08.05.24	Alianza Lima - Cerro Porteño	1:1 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
03.05.24	Libertad Asuncion - Cerro Porteño	1:3 ✺
28.04.24	Cerro Porteño - General Caballero JLM	4:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
25.04.24	Cerro Porteño - Fluminense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 TTWWT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
25.04.24	Cerro Porteño - Fluminense	0:0
03.08.21	Fluminense - Cerro Porteño	1:0
13.07.21	Cerro Porteño - Fluminense	0:2

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