Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 17

Date: 27 July 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Do MorumBIS (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Lacerda D. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2
Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globo Internacional TV, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, TV Globo, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Croatia	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Germany	DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Israel	Sport 2
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2
Mexico	Fanatiz
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	Spor Smart 2
Usa	Fanatiz


	São Paulo		Fluminense

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.1	3.5	Watch
	2.25	3	3.5
	2.18	3	3.55
	2.33	3.11	3.61
	2.3	2.9	3.4
	2.24	3.08	3.7	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.26 ↑ (2.25)	3.03 ↓ (3.22)	3.54 ↑ (3.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

São Paulo
42%

Draw
31.3%

Fluminense
26.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42%

29.3%

28.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.4%

29%

28.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for São Paulo have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Fluminense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

São Paulo - Fluminense Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0, 1st Half - São Paulo (1.62) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - São Paulo (1.52) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - São Paulo (1.24) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): São Paulo will win (6 of 8 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. São Paulo (votes: 10 - 83.3%). Fluminense (votes: 2 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Rafael (G) 32. Ferraresi N. 5. Robert Arboleda 28. Franco A. 6. Soares C. 20. Marcos Antonio 21. Bobadilla D. 25. Alisson 13. Diaz E. 10. Luciano 11. Ferreira	1. Fabio (G) 26. Manoel 3. Thiago Silva 22. Freytes J. 23. Guga 8. Martinelli 5. Bernal F. 45. Lima 17. Canobbio A. 99. John Kennedy 9. Everaldo
Substitutes
17. Andre Silva 19. Dinenno J. 43. Felipe Negrucci 93. Jandrei (G) 33. Luan Silva 48. Lucas Ferreira 29. Pablo Maia 36. Patryck 15. Rodriguinho 35. Sabino 14. Tapia G. 18. Wendell	14. Cano G. 35. Hercules 11. Keno 18. Lezcano R. 27. Marcelo Pitaluga (G) 16. Nonato 77. Paulo Baya 10. PH Ganso 2. Samuel Xavier 90. Serna K. 7. Soteldo Y. 29. Thiago Santos
Coaches
Crespo H.	Renato Gaucho

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
24', 1 - 0, Robert Arboleda ⚽, Luciano (A),
40', Martinelli 🟨,
42', Ferreira (Pen),
45+2', Lima 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Canobbio A. ↓, Serna K. ↑,
46', Martinelli ↓, Hercules ↑,
46', John Kennedy ↓, Soteldo Y. ↑,
46', Manoel ↓, Samuel Xavier ↑,
54', Ferreira 🟨,
56', Bernal F. 🟨,
59', 2 - 0, Ferreira ⚽, Marcos Antonio (A),
63', Diaz E. 🟨,
69', Ferreira ↓, Andre Silva ↑,
69', Diaz E. ↓, Wendell ↑,
69', Alisson ↓, Rodriguinho ↑,
71', Lima ↓, PH Ganso ↑,
75', Luciano ↓, Tapia G. ↑,
77', 2 - 1, Samuel Xavier ⚽,
86', Franco A. ↓, Sabino ↑,
86', Franco A. 🟨,
87', Freytes J. 🟨,
90+1', 3 - 1, Tapia G. ⚽, Ferraresi N. (A),

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 12 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 2.

São Paulo has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Fluminense is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Fluminense may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Fluminense has had a series of home games.

São Paulo might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in São Paulo: Jonathan Calleri (Knee Injury) Lucas Moura (Knee Injury) Lucca Marques (Muscle Injury) Luiz Gustavo (Contusion) Oscar (Back Injury) Ryan Francisco (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Fluminense: Otavio (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There are questionable in Fluminense: Ignacio (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 7 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 22:26. (average 1.1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, São Paulo won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:9. (average 1.2:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São Paulo FC
Brazilian Serie A
24.07.25	Juventude - São Paulo	0:1 ✺
19.07.25	São Paulo - Corinthians	2:0 ✺
16.07.25	Red Bull Bragantino - São Paulo	2:2 ✺
12.07.25	Flamengo - São Paulo	2:0 ✺
12.06.25	São Paulo - Vasco da Gama	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WWTLL
- Fluminense RJ
Brazilian Serie A
23.07.25	Fluminense - Palmeiras	1:2 ✺
20.07.25	Flamengo - Fluminense	1:0 ✺
17.07.25	Fluminense - Cruzeiro	0:2 ✺
FIFA Club World Cup
08.07.25	Fluminense - Chelsea	0:2 ✺
04.07.25	Fluminense - Al-Hilal	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
01.09.24	Fluminense - São Paulo	2:0
13.05.24	São Paulo - Fluminense	2:1
22.11.23	Fluminense - São Paulo	1:0
01.07.23	São Paulo - Fluminense	1:0
05.11.22	Fluminense - São Paulo	3:1
17.07.22	São Paulo - Fluminense	2:2
12.09.21	Fluminense - São Paulo	2:1

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