Match Info

Serie C - Group B - Round 38

Date: 26 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Tullo Morgagni (Forli)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia


	Forlì		Perugia

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.5	3.05	2.08
	3.94	2.95	2.11
	2.98	2.91	2.45	Watch
	3.3	3	2
	3.48	3.26	2.1	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.44 ↑ (2.73)	3.03 ↓ (3.09)	2.15 ↓ (2.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Forlì
26.8%

Draw
30.4%

Perugia
42.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.7%

29.8%

36.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.7%

28.9%

37.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Forlì has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Forlì's form might have worsened.

Perugia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Perugia's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Forlì than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Forlì, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Perugia than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Perugia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Forlì - Perugia Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Perugia will win (votes: 6 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Martelli L. (G) 27. Manetti G. 26. Palomba L. 36. Onofri M. 14. Spinelli A. 20. Ilari C. 3. Menarini F. 32. Scaccabarozzi J. 10. Macri D. 7. Petrelli E. 17. Trombetta M.	1. Gemello L. (G) 26. Calapai L. 15. Dell'Orco C. 31. Tozzuolo A. 32. Megelaitis L. 21. Ladinetti R. 20. Tumbarello G. 10. Canotto L. 24. Verre V. 98. Bolsius D. 9. Montevago D.
Substitutes
15. Berti N. 24. Cavallini G. 23. De Risio C. 11. Farinelli N. 6. Franzolini A. 21. Gheza F. 13. Greco G. 8. Ripani D. 33. Rossi D. 40. Tagliaferri A. 12. Veliaj G. (G) 45. Zagre A.	11. Bacchin L. 16. Bartolomei P. 33. Brunori G. 19. Dottori C. 2. Esculino I. 4. Joselito 12. Moro L. (G) 90. Nepi A. 99. Nwanege K. 18. Perugini M. 71. Rondolini P. 17. Terrnava D. 22. Vinti L. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Menarini F. ↓, Berti N. ↑,
46', Spinelli A. ↓, Rossi D. ↑,
47', 1 - 0, Macri D. ⚽,
55', Bolsius D. ↓, Bacchin L. ↑,
55', Canotto L. ↓, Dottori C. ↑,
63', 1 - 1, Bacchin L. ⚽,
72', Palomba L. ↓, Greco G. ↑,
75', Tumbarello G. ↓, Rondolini P. ↑,
76', Ladinetti R. ↓, Bartolomei P. ↑,
79', Verre V. ↓, Perugini M. ↑,
82', Petrelli E. ↓, Zagre A. ↑,
88', Macri D. ↓, Ripani D. ↑,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 12 and 15).

Forlì has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Perugia has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Forlì may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Forlì won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:8. (average 1:4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Perugia	8	4	1	3	9:12	-3	13
11	Forli	8	2	4	2	13:12	1	10

Last Results with these Odds

Perugia - the odds 2.52 are the expected chance of winning is 36.51%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Forli FC
Italian Serie C Group B
18.04.26	Carpi - Forlì	0:1 ✺
11.04.26	Forlì - Ascoli	0:3 ✺
04.04.26	Bra - Forlì	2:1 ✺
29.03.26	Forlì - Pianese	0:0 ✺
21.03.26	Campobasso - Forlì	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WLLTL
- Perugia Calcio
Italian Serie C Group B
18.04.26	Perugia - Campobasso	0:1 ✺
12.04.26	Ternana - Perugia	2:2 ✺
04.04.26	Perugia - Juventus U23	2:2 ✺
29.03.26	Vis Pesaro - Perugia	0:1 ✺
20.03.26	Perugia - Sassari Torres	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 LTTWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group B
21.12.25	Perugia - Forlì	4:0
Club Friendly
30.07.24	Perugia - Forlì	4:2

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