Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 5

Date: 13 May 2025, Tuesday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Referee: Lopez D. (Par)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Fortaleza		Atlético Bucaramanga

	1	X	2
	1.55	3.75	7	Watch
	1.49	3.9	7
	1.55	3.7	6.4	Watch
	1.57	3.93	6.49
	1.58	3.85	6.42	Watch
	1.5	3.75	7	Watch
	1.57	3.93	6.63	Watch
	1.55	3.7	6.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↑ (1.53)	3.81 ↓ (3.82)	6.67 ↑ (6.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fortaleza
61.1%

Draw
24.7%

Atlético Bucaramanga
14.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.3%

24.5%

14.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.8%

23.9%

13.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

The chances for Atlético Bucaramanga have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Bucaramanga than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Fortaleza - Atlético Bucaramanga Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Fortaleza will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Fortaleza (2.02) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Fortaleza (2.13) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Fortaleza (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Bucaramanga (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Joao Ricardo (G) 14. Mancuso E. 13. Kuscevic B. (C) 39. Gustavo Mancha 6. Bruno Pacheco 88. Lucas Sasha 20. Matheus Rossetto 8. Emmanuel Martinez 11. Marinho 18. Deyverson 26. Breno Lopes	1. Quintana A. (G) 19. Gutierrez A. 23. Romana C. 29. Henao C. 8. Hinestroza F. 15. Chavez D. 22. Fabry (C) 70. Castaneda F. 10. Sambueza F. 7. Londono K. 27. Pons L.
Substitutes
77. Andrade K. 32. Avila G. 12. Brenno (G) 33. Britez E. 10. Calebe 23. David Luiz 5. Fernandez P. 9. Lucero J. 7. Pochettino T. 2. Tinga 4. Titi 22. Yago Pikachu	17. Andrade A. 18. Blanco J. 30. Cardenas S. 32. Castellanos O. (G) 28. Flores L. 4. Garcia J. 92. Ibarguen A. 2. Mena J. 14. Mosquera J. 97. Penaranda A. 12. Vasquez Caicedo L. E. (G) 25. Zapata C.
Coaches
Vojvoda J.	Alvarez L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
66', Castaneda F. ↓, Penaranda A. ↑,
66', Lucas Sasha ↓, Pochettino T. ↑,
66', Deyverson ↓, Lucero J. ↑,
76', Breno Lopes ↓, Andrade K. ↑,
76', Marinho ↓, Yago Pikachu ↑,
77', Sambueza F. ↓, Flores L. ↑,
86', Londono K. 🟨,
86', Londono K. ↓, Mosquera J. ↑,
86', Chavez D. ↓, Mena J. ↑,
89', Emmanuel Martinez ↓, Calebe ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 0.

Fortaleza is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Bucaramanga is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Bucaramanga may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Bucaramanga has had a series of home games.

In this match, Fortaleza is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Fortaleza: Diogo Barbosa (Injury) Moises (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Bucaramanga: Ibarguen A. (Inactive) Jimenez M. S. (Inactive) Zarate A. (Injury)

There are questionable in Fortaleza: Pedro Augusto (Inactive) Rodrigo (Lacking Match Fitness)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:10. (average 0.7:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Fortaleza won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:5. (average 1:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fortaleza EC
Brazilian Serie A
10.05.25	Fortaleza - Juventude	5:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
06.05.25	Fortaleza - Colo-Colo	4:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
02.05.25	São Paulo - Fortaleza	0:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
29.04.25	Retrô Brasil - Fortaleza	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
26.04.25	Sport Recife - Fortaleza	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WWTTT
- Atlético Bucaramanga
Colombian Primera A
09.05.25	Atlético Bucaramanga - Independiente Medellín	2:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
06.05.25	Atlético Bucaramanga - Racing	0:4 ✺
Colombian Primera A
03.05.25	Llaneros SA - Atlético Bucaramanga	2:1 ✺
27.04.25	Atlético Bucaramanga - Millonarios	0:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
23.04.25	Atlético Bucaramanga - Fortaleza	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
23.04.25	Atlético Bucaramanga - Fortaleza	1:1
Colombian Primera A
20.08.16	Fortaleza - Atlético Bucaramanga	1:2
13.03.16	Atlético Bucaramanga - Fortaleza	0:0
Colombian Primera B
12.12.15	Atlético Bucaramanga - Fortaleza	0:0
06.12.15	Fortaleza - Atlético Bucaramanga	0:2
10.08.15	Fortaleza - Atlético Bucaramanga	2:1
16.03.15	Atlético Bucaramanga - Fortaleza	4:1

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