Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 3

Date: 4 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Fortaleza		Juventude

	1	X	2
	1.81	3.2	4.5	Watch
	1.85	3.2	4.45	Watch
	1.89	3.21	4.96
	1.88	3.19	4.55	Watch
	1.85	3.1	4.33
	1.85	3.27	4.52	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↓ (1.89)	3.2 ↑ (3.05)	4.55 ↑ (4.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fortaleza
50.3%

Draw
29.2%

Juventude
20.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49%

30.3%

20.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.8%

30.4%

20.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fortaleza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Juventude has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Juventude than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Fortaleza - Juventude Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Fortaleza will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Brenno (G) 22. Mailton 2. Britez E. (C) 3. Lucas Gazal 13. Mauricio Junior 37. Ryan 88. Lucas Sasha 8. Ronald 32. Luiz Fernando 7. Pochettino T. 19. Lucas Emanoel	93. Jandrei (G) 2. Rai Ramos 34. Rodrigo Sam (C) 4. Messias 47. Marcos Paulo 6. Wadson 75. Rai Silva 5. Luan Martins 44. Mandaca 17. Castro M. 25. Alisson Safira
Substitutes
33. Kaua Rocha 4. Luan Freitas 10. Lucas Crispim 38. Lucca Prior 9. Miritello J. B. 77. Paulo Baya 5. Pierre 29. Rodrigo 75. Rodriguinho 25. Vinicius Silvestre (G) 11. Vitinho 31. Welliton	9. Alan Kardec 11. Fabio Lima 97. Gabriel Pinheiro 29. Junior C. 15. Leo Indio 26. Ly I. 10. MP 22. Nathan Santos 12. Pedro Rocha (G) 27. Ray Breno 21. Ruan Carneiro (G) 3. Titi
Coaches
Thiago Carpini	Mauricio Barbieri

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
11', Mailton 🟨,
18', 1 - 0, Mailton (Penalty Awarded),
45+1', 2 - 0, Ryan ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Rai Ramos ↓, Fabio Lima ↑,
46', Alisson Safira ↓, Alan Kardec ↑,
51', 2 - 1, Alan Kardec ⚽, Castro M. (A),
59', Lucas Emanoel ↓, Miritello J. B. ↑,
59', Ryan ↓, Rodriguinho ↑,
61', Luiz Fernando 🟨,
64', Mauricio Junior ↓, Lucas Crispim ↑,
64', Lucas Sasha ↓, Luan Freitas ↑,
78', Luiz Fernando ↓, Vitinho ↑,
78', Messias ↓, Leo Indio ↑,
78', Luan Martins ↓, Junior C. ↑,
83', Wadson ↓, MP ↑,
86', Marcos Paulo ↓, Nathan Santos ↑,
88', Pochettino T. ↓, Rodrigo ↑,
89', Rodrigo 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 4.

Fortaleza is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Juventude is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Fortaleza is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Fortaleza: Bruninho (Inactive) Cardona T. (Muscle Injury) Joao Ricardo (Inactive) Pierre (Inactive)

There will not play in Juventude: Alan Ruschel (Muscle Injury) Lucas Mineiro (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Juventude: Pablo Roberto (Injury)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 24:7. (average 2:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Fortaleza won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 14:4. (average 2.3:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Juventude	32	17	8	7	37:19	18	59
3	Fortaleza	32	15	11	6	37:27	10	56

Last Results with these Odds

Fortaleza - the odds 1.89 are the expected chance of winning is 48.96%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fortaleza EC
Brazilian Serie B
31.03.26	Fortaleza - Cuiabá	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
28.03.26	Fortaleza - Imperatriz de Desportos	2:1 ✺
24.03.26	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Fortaleza	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
21.03.26	Botafogo SP - Fortaleza	4:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
17.03.26	Nova Iguaçu - Fortaleza	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 TWWLW
- EC Juventude
Brazilian Serie B
31.03.26	Juventude - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
28.03.26	Juventude - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:2 ✺
25.03.26	Sampaio Corrêa FE - Juventude	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
22.03.26	Avaí - Juventude	2:0 ✺
Copa do Brasil
19.03.26	Juventude - Águia de Marabá	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 TLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
05.10.25	Juventude - Fortaleza	1:2
10.05.25	Fortaleza - Juventude	5:0
02.11.24	Juventude - Fortaleza	0:3
30.06.24	Fortaleza - Juventude	2:1
18.09.22	Juventude - Fortaleza	1:1
28.05.22	Fortaleza - Juventude	1:1
03.12.21	Fortaleza - Juventude	1:0

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