Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 35

Date: 30 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Referee: Lacerda D. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Israel	Sport 1
Mexico	Fanatiz
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Usa	Fanatiz


	Fortaleza		Atlético Mineiro

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.25	3.25	Watch
	2.32	3.15	3.05
	2.38	3.27	3.29
	2.55	3.03	2.98	Watch
	2.36	3.24	3.23	Watch
	2.36	3.14	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.37 ↓ (2.55)	3.18 ↑ (2.95)	3.18 ↑ (3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fortaleza
40.1%

Draw
29.9%

Atlético Mineiro
30%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.8%

31.8%

31.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.7%

31.9%

31.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fortaleza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Atlético Mineiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.7%	27.3%	0%

Fortaleza - Atlético Mineiro Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Fortaleza will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fortaleza: 46.4% – 99%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Fortaleza (1.95) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Atlético MG (1.60) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Fortaleza (votes: 1 - 25%). Atlético MG (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Brenno (G) 14. Mancuso E. 33. Britez E. (C) 3. Avila G. 16. Diogo Barbosa 30. Pierre 88. Lucas Sasha 7. Pochettino T. 80. Herrera J. 27. Bareiro A. 26. Breno Lopes	22. Everson (G) 16. Ruan Tressoldi 14. Vitor Hugo 6. Alonso J. (C) 17. Igor Gomes 21. Franco A. 5. Alexsander 11. Bernard 13. Guilherme Arana 7. Hulk 92. Dudu
Substitutes
18. Deyverson 34. Gazal 13. Kuscevic B. 91. Lucas Crispim 9. Lucero J. 20. Matheus Rossetto 96. Moises 5. Pereira M. 2. Tinga 25. Vinicius Silvestre (G) 36. Weverson 22. Yago Pikachu	77. Biel 42. Cadu 38. Caio Paulista 8. Fausto Vera 1. Gabriel Delfim (G) 25. Gabriel Menino 10. Gustavo Scarpa 2. Natanael 18. Reinier 26. Renzo Saravia 31. Robert (G) 23. Roman I.
Coaches
Palermo M.	Sampaoli J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
41', 1 - 0, Pochettino T. ⚽, Bareiro A. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
66', Hulk ↓, Biel ↑,
67', Herrera J. ↓, Yago Pikachu ↑,
67', Bareiro A. ↓, Deyverson ↑,
67', Breno Lopes ↓, Lucas Crispim ↑,
70', Alexsander ↓, Gustavo Scarpa ↑,
70', Ruan Tressoldi ↓, Renzo Saravia ↑,
77', Pierre ↓, Pereira M. ↑,
77', Pochettino T. ↓, Moises ↑,
82', Alonso J. 🟨,
84', Guilherme Arana ↓, Cadu ↑,
84', Bernard ↓, Gabriel Menino ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 13 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 1.

Fortaleza is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

In recent matches, Atlético MG has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Atlético MG may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Fortaleza has had a series of away games.

Fortaleza might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Fortaleza: Bruno Pacheco (Inactive) Joao Ricardo (Shoulder Injury) Lucca Prior (Inactive) Marinho (Ankle Injury) Rodrigo (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Atlético MG: Caio Maia (Knee Injury) Cuello (Ankle Injury) Junior Santos (Hip Injury) Lyanco (Achilles Tendon Injury) Patrick Silva (Inactive) Rony (Red Card)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 3 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 19:28. (average 1.3:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Fortaleza won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:9. (average 1.1:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fortaleza EC
Brazilian Serie A
26.11.25	Red Bull Bragantino - Fortaleza	0:1 ✺
20.11.25	Bahia - Fortaleza	2:3 ✺
12.11.25	Atlético Mineiro - Fortaleza	3:3 ✺
09.11.25	Fortaleza - Grêmio	2:2 ✺
06.11.25	Ceará - Fortaleza	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.9 WWTTT
- Atlético Mineiro
Brazilian Serie A
25.11.25	Atlético Mineiro - Flamengo	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
22.11.25	Lanús - Atlético Mineiro	1:0 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
16.11.25	Red Bull Bragantino - Atlético Mineiro	2:0 ✺
12.11.25	Atlético Mineiro - Fortaleza	3:3 ✺
08.11.25	Sport Recife - Atlético Mineiro	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 TLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
12.11.25	Atlético Mineiro - Fortaleza	3:3
16.10.24	Fortaleza - Atlético Mineiro	1:1
23.06.24	Atlético Mineiro - Fortaleza	1:1
01.11.23	Atlético Mineiro - Fortaleza	3:1
24.06.23	Fortaleza - Atlético Mineiro	2:1
24.10.22	Fortaleza - Atlético Mineiro	0:0
25.06.22	Atlético Mineiro - Fortaleza	3:2

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