Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 33

Date: 8 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho (Recife)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Ecuador	El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Mexico	Fanatiz
Usa	Fanatiz


	Sport Recife		Atlético Mineiro

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.1	2.45	Watch
	3.05	2.98	2.42
	3.27	3.15	2.5
	2.83	3.22	2.54	Watch
	3.44	3.17	2.36	Watch
	2.85	3.1	2.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.09 ↑ (2.83)	3.12 ↓ (3.15)	2.47 ↓ (2.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sport Recife
30.9%

Draw
30.6%

Atlético Mineiro
38.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.3%

30%

36.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.8%

30.4%

36.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sport Recife has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Atlético Mineiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sport Recife than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Mineiro than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.3%	9.1%	63.6%

Sport Recife - Atlético Mineiro Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Recife will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Atlético MG will win (votes: 7 - 63.6%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Atlético MG: 35.2% – 92%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético MG (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Atlético MG (2.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético MG (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gabriel (G) 33. Matheus Alexandre 15. Rafael Thyere (C) 40. Ramon Menezes 36. Luan Candido 14. Rivera C. 21. Lucas Kal 10. Lucas Lima 17. Matheusinho 92. Pablo 38. Leo Pereira	22. Everson (G) 14. Vitor Hugo 23. Roman I. 6. Alonso J. (C) 2. Natanael 21. Franco A. 8. Fausto Vera 17. Igor Gomes 38. Caio Paulista 77. Biel 33. Rony
Substitutes
13. Aderlan 20. Atencio R. 22. Caique Franca (G) 30. Chrystian Barletta 54. Gomes do Nascimento A. 19. Hyoran 3. Kevyson 27. Oliveira S. 7. Paciencia G. 9. Ramirez I. 46. Riquelme 11. Romarinho	5. Alexsander 42. Cadu 92. Dudu 1. Gabriel Delfim (G) 25. Gabriel Menino 13. Guilherme Arana 10. Gustavo Scarpa 7. Hulk 20. Patrick Silva 18. Reinier 26. Renzo Saravia 31. Robert (G)
Coaches
Lucena C.	Sampaoli J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
18', 1 - 0, Leo Pereira ⚽, Pablo (A),
2nd Half (1 - 4)
46', Natanael ↓, Guilherme Arana ↑,
46', Caio Paulista ↓, Dudu ↑,
59', Biel ↓, Hulk ↑,
63', 2 - 0, Leo Pereira ⚽,
65', Roman I. ↓, Alexsander ↑,
65', Fausto Vera ↓, Gustavo Scarpa ↑,
68', 2 - 1, Hulk ⚽,
70', 2 - 2, Rony ⚽, Gustavo Scarpa (A),
72', Matheus Alexandre 🟨,
77', Matheusinho ↓, Romarinho ↑,
81', 2 - 3, Alexsander ⚽, Hulk (A),
83', Lucas Kal ↓, Oliveira S. ↑,
83', Rafael Thyere ↓, Riquelme ↑,
83', 2 - 4, Rony ⚽, Hulk (A),
89', Lucas Lima ↓, Atencio R. ↑,
90', Pablo ↓, Ramirez I. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Recife won 1.

Recife is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Atlético MG is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recife may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Atlético MG is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Recife: Denis (Knee Injury) Hereda (Health problems) Ze Lucas (International duty) Ze Roberto (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Atlético MG: Bernard (Yellow Cards) Caio Maia (Knee Injury) Cuello (Ankle Injury) Junior Santos (Hip Injury) Lyanco (Injury) Ruan Tressoldi (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Recife: Rafael Thyere (Inactive)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Recife won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 26:36. (average 1.4:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Recife won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 17:13. (average 1.9:1.4).

Last Results with these Odds

Sport Recife - the odds 2.83 are the expected chance of winning is 33.27%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sport Recife
Brazilian Serie A
05.11.25	Sport Recife - Juventude	0:2 ✺
01.11.25	Flamengo - Sport Recife	3:0 ✺
25.10.25	Sport Recife - Mirassol	1:2 ✺
19.10.25	Internacional RS - Sport Recife	2:0 ✺
15.10.25	Sport Recife - Ceará	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLLLT
- Atlético Mineiro
Brazilian Serie A
05.11.25	Atlético Mineiro - Bahia	3:0 ✺
02.11.25	Internacional RS - Atlético Mineiro	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
28.10.25	Atlético Mineiro - Independiente del Valle	3:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
25.10.25	Atlético Mineiro - Ceará	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
21.10.25	Independiente del Valle - Atlético Mineiro	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 WTWWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
08.10.25	Atlético Mineiro - Sport Recife	3:1
Copa do Brasil
22.05.24	Sport Recife - Atlético Mineiro	1:0
30.04.24	Atlético Mineiro - Sport Recife	2:0
Brazilian Serie A
18.09.21	Atlético Mineiro - Sport Recife	3:0
06.06.21	Sport Recife - Atlético Mineiro	0:1
21.02.21	Sport Recife - Atlético Mineiro	2:3
24.10.20	Atlético Mineiro - Sport Recife	0:0

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