Match Info

Serie B - Round 27

Date: 9 September 2026, Wednesday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Referee: Ferreira Y. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+, ESPN 4
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Fortaleza		Avaí

	1	X	2
	1.46	3.70	7.50	Watch
	1.50	3.70	6.50
	1.58	3.75	5.80	Watch
	1.51	3.97	7.72
	1.53	3.78	6.91	Watch
	1.49	3.90	7.60
	1.50	3.74	7.16	Watch
	1.48	3.80	7.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.51 ↓ (1.61)	3.79 ↑ (3.75)	7.02 ↑ (5.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fortaleza
62%

Draw
24.6%

Avaí
13.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

57.9%

24.9%

17.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.5%

23.8%

16.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fortaleza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

Avaí has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Avaí than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Fortaleza - Avaí Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - under (2.08) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Joao Ricardo (C) 22. Mailton 3. Lucas Gazal 6. Cardona T. 12. Henrique Kaio 88. Lucas Sasha 8. Ronald 11. Vitinho 10. Lucas Crispim 16. Pedro Henrique 9. Miritello J. B.	94. Bruno Ferreira (G) 22. Joao Vitor 3. Allyson (C) 40. Reynaldo 36. Douglas Teixeira 25. Paulo Vitor 77. Ze Ricardo 23. Gabriel Cipriano 10. Jean Lucas 95. Wenderson 11. Vizeu F.
Substitutes
4. Luan Freitas 38. Lucca Prior 32. Luiz Fernando 13. Mauricio Junior 17. Nathan Fogaca 23. Neris 28. Paulinho 77. Paulo Baya 29. Rodrigo 37. Ryan 25. Vinicius Silvestre (G) 31. Welliton	4. Gabriel Simples 15. Guilherme Aquino 18. Hyan 1. Igor Bohn (G) 26. Immig V. 20. Isaias 30. Kaua Gabriel 7. Leo Chu 8. Luiz Henrique 21. Otavio Passos (G) 35. Pedrao
Coaches
Autuori P.	Aal A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
42', Gabriel Cipriano 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Ronald ↓, Ryan ↑,
46', Lucas Crispim ↓, Luiz Fernando ↑,
62', Jean Lucas ↓, Luiz Henrique ↑,
62', Miritello J. B. ↓, Paulo Baya ↑,
65', Lucas Sasha ↓, Rodrigo ↑,
66', 1 - 0, Mailton ⚽,
75', Ze Ricardo ↓, Kaua Gabriel ↑,
75', Wenderson ↓, Leo Chu ↑,
81', Gabriel Cipriano ↓, Isaias ↑,
83', Joao Vitor 🟨,
86', Pedro Henrique ↓, Neris ↑,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final) and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 3.

Fortaleza is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 2 wins).

In recent matches, Avaí has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Fortaleza is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Fortaleza: Fuentes G. (Knee Injury) Luiz Fernando (Personal Reasons) Rodriguinho (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Avaí: Daniel Penha (Personal Reasons) Jefferson Maciel (Injury) Juan Rocha (Injury) Romildo Del Piage (Injury) Wallison (Injury)

There are questionable in Fortaleza: Lucca Prior (Knee Injury)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:5. (average 1.6:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Fortaleza won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1. (average 1.7:0.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Fortaleza	34	16	12	6	41:29	12	60
17	Avai	34	10	7	17	33:43	-10	37

Outrights of Brazilian Serie B for now

Fortaleza: 16.91%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fortaleza EC
Brazilian Serie B
05.09.26	Goiás - Fortaleza	0:1 ✺
31.08.26	Fortaleza - Operário Ferroviario	1:1 ✺
23.08.26	Criciúma - Fortaleza	0:2 ✺
19.08.26	Fortaleza - São Bernardo	1:1 ✺
15.08.26	Juventude - Fortaleza	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.4 WTWTT
- Avaí
Brazilian Serie B
05.09.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Avaí	3:1 ✺
30.08.26	Avaí - Atlético Goianiense	0:1 ✺
23.08.26	Ponte Preta - Avaí	0:2 ✺
19.08.26	Avaí - Sport Recife	2:1 ✺
16.08.26	Operário Ferroviario - Avaí	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.9 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
10.05.26	Avaí - Fortaleza	0:0
Brazilian Serie A
09.10.22	Fortaleza - Avaí	2:0
16.06.22	Avaí - Fortaleza	3:2
30.10.19	Avaí - Fortaleza	1:3
13.07.19	Fortaleza - Avaí	2:0
Brazilian Serie B
10.11.18	Avaí - Fortaleza	0:1
24.07.18	Fortaleza - Avaí	1:1

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