Match Info

Serie B - Round 5

Date: 19 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Referee: Casagrande L. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+


	Fortaleza		Criciúma

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.1	4.75	Watch
	1.95	3.2	3.7
	1.85	3.2	4.25
	1.94	3.26	4.7
	1.94	3.31	4.07	Watch
	1.85	3.1	4.33
	1.88	3.14	4.5	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.9 ↑ (1.72)	3.19 ↓ (3.45)	4.33 ↓ (4.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Fortaleza
49.2%

Draw
29.3%

Criciúma
21.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.5%

26.7%

19.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.3%

26.3%

19.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Criciúma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fortaleza, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Criciúma than the current prediction. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	40%	40%

Fortaleza - Criciúma Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Fortaleza will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Criciúma will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Vinicius Silvestre (G) 2. Britez E. (C) 33. Kaua Rocha 3. Lucas Gazal 22. Mailton 5. Pierre 37. Ryan 13. Mauricio Junior 19. Lucas Emanoel 7. Pochettino T. 32. Luiz Fernando	32. Airton (G) 43. Ruan Carvalho 34. Bruno Alves 4. Luciano Castan 6. Marcinho 8. Gui Lobo 50. Thiaguinho 22. Marcelo Hermes (C) 11. Romarinho 7. Fellipe Mateus 9. Nicolas
Substitutes
12. Brenno (G) 4. Luan Freitas 88. Lucas Sasha 38. Lucca Prior 15. Magrao (G) 20. Matheus Rossetto 77. Paulo Baya 29. Rodrigo 75. Rodriguinho 8. Ronald 11. Vitinho 31. Welliton	20. Bidu 31. Hiago Alves 41. Jean Irmer 21. Joao Carlos 2. Leo Mana 91. Otero R. 70. Pedro Santos (G) 38. Sandry 13. Waguininho
Coaches
Thiago Carpini	Eduardo Baptista

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
8', 1 - 0, Luiz Fernando ⚽,
13', 1 - 1, Fellipe Mateus ⚽, Nicolas (A),
29', 2 - 1, Ruan Carvalho (Own goal),
32', Lucas Emanoel 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
48', Ryan 🟨,
50', 2 - 2, Bruno Alves ⚽, Romarinho (A),
56', Marcelo Hermes 🟨,
60', Ruan Carvalho 🟨,
64', Romarinho ↓, Waguininho ↑,
67', Pierre ↓, Lucas Sasha ↑,
67', Mauricio Junior ↓, Rodriguinho ↑,
71', Fellipe Mateus ↓, Hiago Alves ↑,
71', Nicolas ↓, Otero R. ↑,
77', Lucas Emanoel ↓, Paulo Baya ↑,
77', 3 - 2, Bruno Alves (Own goal),
82', Ruan Carvalho ↓, Leo Mana ↑,
82', Bruno Alves ↓, Bidu ↑,
88', Mailton ↓, Welliton ↑,
88', Ryan ↓, Ronald ↑,
90+5', Rodriguinho 🟨,

Preview

Fortaleza has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Criciúma is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Fortaleza may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Fortaleza is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Fortaleza: Bruninho (Inactive) Cardona T. (Muscle Injury) Joao Ricardo (Inactive) Lucas Crispim (Inactive)

There will not play in Criciúma: Alisson (Inactive) Caue Santos (Achilles Tendon Injury) Heitor Roca (Knee Injury) Jhonata Robert (Inactive) Rodrigo (Inactive) Willean Lepo (Red Card) Yuri Tanque (Inactive)

There are questionable in Fortaleza: Fuentes G. (Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 1:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Fortaleza won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0. (average 1.5:0).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Fortaleza	32	15	11	6	37:27	10	56
5	Criciuma	31	15	8	8	33:27	6	53

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fortaleza EC
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
16.04.26	América RN - Fortaleza	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
12.04.26	São Bernardo - Fortaleza	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
08.04.26	Ceará - Fortaleza	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
04.04.26	Fortaleza - Juventude	2:1 ✺
31.03.26	Fortaleza - Cuiabá	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 TWLWT
- Criciúma EC
Brazilian Serie B
10.04.26	Criciúma - Botafogo SP	1:0 ✺
06.04.26	Goiás - Criciúma	1:0 ✺
01.04.26	Criciúma - Athletic Club	1:1 ✺
22.03.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Criciúma	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
07.03.26	Criciúma - Camboriú	4:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
10.08.24	Fortaleza - Criciúma	1:0
24.07.24	Criciúma - Fortaleza	1:1
Brazilian Serie B
08.09.18	Criciúma - Fortaleza	2:0
22.05.18	Fortaleza - Criciúma	2:0

Upcoming Matches