Match Info

Serie B - Round 18

Date: 17 July 2026, Friday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+, ESPN
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Fortaleza		Grêmio Novorizontino

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.1	3.6	Watch
	2.05	3.10	3.50
	2.12	3.05	3.55	Watch
	2.2	3.2	3.74
	2.13	3.09	3.71	Watch
	2.15	3.15	3.65
	2.08	3.09	3.77	Watch
	2.13	3.05	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↑ (2.02)	3.1 ↓ (3.25)	3.63 ↓ (3.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fortaleza
44.1%

Draw
30.1%

Grêmio Novorizontino
25.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.3%

28.8%

24.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.5%

30.8%

23.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fortaleza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Grêmio Novorizontino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fortaleza, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	33.3%	33.3%

Fortaleza - Grêmio Novorizontino Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Fortaleza will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Novorizontino will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Joao Ricardo (C) 75. Rodriguinho 23. Neris 3. Lucas Gazal 18. Fuentes G. 88. Lucas Sasha 29. Rodrigo 16. Pedro Henrique 11. Vitinho 32. Luiz Fernando 9. Miritello J. B.	93. Jordi (G) 20. Castrillon N. 26. Gabriel Bahia 4. Patrick 66. Maykon Jesus 17. Matheus Bianqui 6. Luis Oyama 77. Helio Borges 10. Romulo 41. Reidiney 11. Robson (C)
Substitutes
6. Cardona T. 4. Luan Freitas 10. Lucas Crispim 19. Lucas Emanoel 38. Lucca Prior 22. Mailton 77. Paulo Baya 5. Pierre 8. Ronald 37. Ryan 25. Vinicius Silvestre (G) 31. Welliton	9. Carlao 3. Carlinhos 31. Cesar Augusto (G) 27. Diego Mathias 14. Eduardo Brock 22. Ivan Alvarino 50. Juninho 18. Leo Naldi 8. Ortiz C. 15. Tavinho 16. Vinicius Paiva
Coaches
Thiago Carpini	Moreira E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Vitinho ⚽,
40', Joao Ricardo 🟨,
45+1', Neris 🟨,
45+1', Robson 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Luiz Fernando ↓, Welliton ↑,
46', Helio Borges ↓, Juninho ↑,
56', Rodriguinho 🟨,
61', Romulo ↓, Vinicius Paiva ↑,
61', Luis Oyama ↓, Tavinho ↑,
64', Lucas Gazal 🟨,
65', Rodriguinho ↓, Mailton ↑,
65', Rodrigo ↓, Pierre ↑,
68', Robson ↓, Ortiz C. ↑,
68', Reidiney ↓, Carlao ↑,
74', Neris ↓, Luan Freitas ↑,
79', Pedro Henrique ↓, Paulo Baya ↑,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)).

Recent performances by Fortaleza have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Novorizontino is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Novorizontino may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Fortaleza will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Fortaleza: Cardona T. (Muscle Injury) Machuca I. (Suspended) Mauricio Junior (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Novorizontino: Arthur Barbosa (Inactive) Carlinhos (Inactive) Hector Bianchi (Inactive) Lucas Pereira (Inactive) Marlon (Inactive) Renato Palm (Inactive)

There are questionable in Fortaleza: Bruninho (Muscle Injury)

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Outrights of Brazilian Serie B for now

Fortaleza: 13.3% Novorizontino: 12.63%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Fortaleza	32	15	11	6	37:27	10	56
4	Novorizontino	31	15	9	7	52:27	25	54

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fortaleza EC
Brazilian Serie B
12.07.26	Atlético Goianiense - Fortaleza	1:0 ✺
02.07.26	Fortaleza - Ponte Preta	2:0 ✺
28.06.26	Fortaleza - Sport Recife	2:1 ✺
21.06.26	CRB Maceio - Fortaleza	1:1 ✺
16.06.26	Fortaleza - América Mineiro	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LWWTL
- Grêmio Novorizontino
Brazilian Serie B
12.07.26	Operário Ferroviario - Grêmio Novorizontino	2:1 ✺
04.07.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Atlético Goianiense	3:0 ✺
26.06.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Vila Nova	2:1 ✺
22.06.26	Ponte Preta - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:2 ✺
14.06.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Náutico Capibaribe	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LWWWT

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