Match Info

Serie B - Round 31

Date: 2 October 2026, Friday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Referee: Goncalves K. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT, Disney+


	Fortaleza		Náutico Capibaribe

	1	X	2
	1.46	3.90	7.00	Watch
	1.51	3.90	5.50
	1.64	3.75	5.20	Watch
	1.51	4.10	5.70
	1.62	3.88	5.3	Watch
	1.52	4.10	6.35
	1.51	3.89	6.64	Watch
	1.49	4.10	6.20
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↓ (2)	3.95 ↑ (3.35)	5.99 ↑ (3.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fortaleza
60.8%

Draw
23.6%

Náutico Capibaribe
15.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.6%

27.8%

25.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.3%

26.3%

24.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fortaleza has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Fortaleza's performance.

Náutico Capibaribe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Náutico Capibaribe might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fortaleza than the current prediction. (-11.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Fortaleza that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Náutico Capibaribe could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	11.1%	0%

Fortaleza - Náutico Capibaribe Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Fortaleza (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Fortaleza will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Joao Ricardo (C) 22. Mailton 3. Lucas Gazal 6. Cardona T. 12. Henrique Kaio 88. Lucas Sasha 5. Pierre 32. Luiz Fernando 11. Vitinho 17. Nathan Fogaca 16. Pedro Henrique	1. Muriel Becker (G) 2. Arnaldo 15. Leo Indio 3. Betao 6. Ryan Carlos 8. Wenderson 41. Samuel Felix 29. Junior Todinho 10. Jean Carlos (C) 7. Vinicius 72. Derek
Substitutes
21. Cantillo J. 4. Luan Freitas 10. Lucas Crispim 38. Lucca Prior 13. Mauricio Junior 23. Neris 77. Paulo Baya 29. Rodrigo 75. Rodriguinho 8. Ronald 25. Vinicius Silvestre (G) 31. Welliton	5. Auremir 24. Borasi B. 55. Guruceaga G. (G) 46. Gustavo Henrique 19. Kauan Maranhao 27. Luiz Felipe 60. Luiz Paulo 9. Paulo Sergio 93. Reginaldo 11. Victor Andrade 34. Wanderson
Coaches
Autuori P.	Bruno Pivetti

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
5', 0 - 1, Vinicius ⚽, Arnaldo (A),
31', Lucas Gazal 🟨,
43', 1 - 1, Luiz Fernando ⚽, Mailton (A),
45+4', Samuel Felix 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Pedro Henrique ↓, Rodriguinho ↑,
51', Arnaldo 🟨,
58', Samuel Felix ↓, Luiz Felipe ↑,
58', Derek ↓, Borasi B. ↑,
71', Nathan Fogaca ↓, Rodrigo ↑,
71', Lucas Sasha ↓, Cantillo J. ↑,
71', Arnaldo ↓, Reginaldo ↑,
76', Vitinho ↓, Welliton ↑,
85', Leo Indio ↓, Wanderson ↑,
85', Junior Todinho ↓, Paulo Sergio ↑,
85', Luiz Fernando ↓, Paulo Baya ↑,
90+4', Wenderson 🟨,

Preview

An upper-table contender faces a competitive test against mid-table opposition (ranked 4th in the Promotion - Serie B (Promotion - Playoffs - Final) and 14th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 4.

Fortaleza is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Náutico has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

In this matchup, Fortaleza is considered the favorite to take the win.

Confirmed absences for Fortaleza: Fuentes G. (Knee Injury) Jailson (Knee Injury).

Confirmed absences for Náutico: Leo Indio (Inactive) Mateus Silva (Inactive) Matheus Ribeiro (Injury).

Our forecast points to a victory for Fortaleza in today's match, at odds of 1.76.

In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Fortaleza has recorded 5 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 13:4 (averaging 2.2:0.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Fortaleza against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 4:1 goals (averaging 2:0.5 per game).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie B for now

Fortaleza: 13.3% Nautico: 0.3%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Fortaleza	32	15	11	6	37:27	10	56
13	Nautico	31	11	9	11	39:38	1	42

Last Results with these Odds

Fortaleza - the odds 2 are the expected chance of winning is 46.62%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fortaleza EC
Brazilian Serie B
27.09.26	Fortaleza - Athletic Club	2:2 ✺
20.09.26	Londrina - Fortaleza	1:2 ✺
13.09.26	Fortaleza - Ceará	1:1 ✺
09.09.26	Fortaleza - Avaí	1:0 ✺
05.09.26	Goiás - Fortaleza	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 TWTWW
- Náutico Capibaribe
Brazilian Serie B
26.09.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Sport Recife	3:1 ✺
21.09.26	Cuiabá - Náutico Capibaribe	3:0 ✺
15.09.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Operário Ferroviario	3:3 ✺
09.09.26	América Mineiro - Náutico Capibaribe	2:1 ✺
03.09.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Botafogo SP	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
09.06.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Fortaleza	0:1
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
26.02.23	Fortaleza - Náutico Capibaribe	2:1
26.03.22	Fortaleza - Náutico Capibaribe	2:0
12.02.22	Náutico Capibaribe - Fortaleza	2:2
14.03.20	Náutico Capibaribe - Fortaleza	0:3
15.01.19	Náutico Capibaribe - Fortaleza	1:3

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