Match Info

Serie B - Round 11

Date: 1 June 2026, Monday

Location: Estádio Moisés Lucarelli (Campinas)

Referee: Batista E. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+, ESPN


	Ponte Preta		Botafogo SP

	1	X	2
	3.1	2.85	2.45	Watch
	2.6	3	2.6
	2.98	2.82	2.52	Watch
	3.24	2.92	2.61
	3.19	2.69	2.63	Watch
	3.1	2.7	2.5
	3.12	2.79	2.54	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.05 ↑ (2.67)	2.82 ↓ (2.83)	2.55 ↓ (2.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ponte Preta
30.5%

Draw
33%

Botafogo SP
36.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35%

33%

32%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.3%

31.8%

30.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ponte Preta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

Botafogo SP has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponte Preta than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ponte Preta, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Botafogo SP than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Botafogo SP, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	66.7%	11.1%

Ponte Preta - Botafogo SP Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Ponte Preta will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Botafogo SP will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 66.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Diogo Silva (G) 2. Julio 3. Lucas Cunha 44. Marcio Silva 14. Danilo Barcelos 38. Tarik 8. Andre Lima 7. Diego Tavares 10. Elvis (C) 18. David da Hora 9. Willian Pottker	1. Victor Souza (G) 22. Gabriel Inocencio 4. Vilar 13. Wallace 6. Patrick Brey (C) 8. Everton Morelli 5. Leandro Maciel 30. Ze Hugo 10. Rafael Gava 7. Kelvin 9. Hygor
Substitutes
26. Baianinho 1. Guilherme Viana (G) 35. Gustavo Telles 19. Jonathan Cafu 32. Kevyson 16. Leo Gomes 11. Luis Phelipe 17. Miguel Morais 23. Palacios S. 90. Rodriguinho 15. Weverton	18. Arthur Caike 32. Erik Rebello 26. Felipe Vieira 15. Guilherme Mariano 33. Hebert 11. Jefferson Nem 12. Jordan (G) 19. Marcio Maranhao 31. Pedro Henrique 29. Thiago Moraes 23. Wesley Santos
Coaches
Rodrigo Santana	Claudio Tencati

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
32', Diego Tavares 🟥,
32', Willian Pottker 🟨,
32', Marcio Silva ↓, Weverton ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
52', Leandro Maciel 🟨,
53', Andre Lima 🟨,
60', Kelvin ↓, Jefferson Nem ↑,
60', Leandro Maciel ↓, Arthur Caike ↑,
62', David da Hora ↓, Baianinho ↑,
62', Danilo Barcelos ↓, Kevyson ↑,
62', Tarik ↓, Leo Gomes ↑,
64', Vilar 🟨,
72', Baianinho 🟨,
75', Vilar ↓, Pedro Henrique ↑,
76', Ze Hugo ↓, Wesley Santos ↑,
77', Willian Pottker ↓, Palacios S. ↑,
86', Rafael Gava ↓, Thiago Moraes ↑,
90+2', Luis Phelipe 🟨,
90+2', Luis Phelipe 🟥,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ponte Preta won 2.

Neither of the teams is performing well right now.

Botafogo SP may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Ponte Preta: Bryan Borges (Inactive) David Braz (Inactive) Rodrigo Souza (Muscle Injury) Saravia Salvia R. A. (Inactive)

There will not play in Botafogo SP: Carlao (Injury) Darlan (Inactive) Jonathan (Inactive) Matheus Sales (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Ponte Preta: Murilo (Injury)

There are questionable in Botafogo SP: Leandro Maciel (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ponte Preta won 9 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 19:15. (average 1:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Ponte Preta won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:3. (average 0.9:0.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
16	Botafogo SP	32	10	8	14	36:38	-2	38
20	Ponte Preta ✔	32	3	4	25	17:68	-51	13

Last Results with these Odds

Botafogo SP - the odds 2.92 are the expected chance of winning is 32%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AA Ponte Preta
Brazilian Serie B
24.05.26	CRB Maceio - Ponte Preta	4:2 ✺
18.05.26	Ponte Preta - Londrina	1:4 ✺
09.05.26	Ponte Preta - Sport Recife	1:3 ✺
03.05.26	São Bernardo - Ponte Preta	3:0 ✺
24.04.26	Ponte Preta - América Mineiro	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LLLLW
- Botafogo SP
Brazilian Serie B
25.05.26	Botafogo SP - Athletic Club	1:2 ✺
16.05.26	Goiás - Botafogo SP	1:0 ✺
10.05.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Botafogo SP	1:0 ✺
02.05.26	Botafogo SP - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1 ✺
22.04.26	Cuiabá - Botafogo SP	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LLLTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
15.02.25	Ponte Preta - Botafogo SP	0:0
Brazilian Serie B
05.10.24	Ponte Preta - Botafogo SP	1:0
19.06.24	Botafogo SP - Ponte Preta	2:0
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
07.02.24	Botafogo SP - Ponte Preta	0:3
Brazilian Serie B
12.08.23	Botafogo SP - Ponte Preta	0:0
02.05.23	Ponte Preta - Botafogo SP	2:0
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
16.02.22	Ponte Preta - Botafogo SP	0:1

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