Match Info

2. Bundesliga - Round 18

Date: 16 January 2026, Friday

Location: Merkur Spiel-Arena (Düsseldorf)

Referee: Storks S. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Fortuna Düsseldorf		Arminia Bielefeld

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.5	2.63	Watch
	2.48	3.35	2.62	Watch
	2.48	3.55	2.73	Watch
	2.45	3.25	2.63
	2.42	3.55	2.8	Watch
	2.45	3.4	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↓ (2.7)	3.43 ↓ (3.46)	2.69 ↑ (2.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fortuna Düsseldorf
38%

Draw
27.3%

Arminia Bielefeld
34.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35%

27.3%

37.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.9%

27.2%

37.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fortuna Düsseldorf has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Arminia Bielefeld has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fortuna Düsseldorf than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arminia Bielefeld than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
64.3%	25%	10.7%

Fortuna Düsseldorf - Arminia Bielefeld Predictions

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Fortuna will win (votes: 18 - 66.7%). Arminia will win (votes: 3 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fortuna: 48.9% – 84.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Fortuna (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Fortuna (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Fortuna (1.43) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Fortuna (votes: 6 - 75%). Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Kastenmeier F. (G) 15. Oberdorf T. 44. Egouli E. 4. Schmidt K. 8. El Azzouzi A. 19. Iyoha E. 16. Tanaka S. 46. Suso S. 24. Muslija F. 10. Rasmussen C. 13. Itten C.	1. Kersken J. (G) 5. Bauer M. 19. Grosser M. 3. Felix J. 14. Momuluh T. 21. Russo S. 17. Sicker A. 6. Corboz M. 38. Worl M. 11. Grodowski J. 7. Telalovic S.
Substitutes
23. Appelkamp S. 6. Breithaupt T. 9. Celar Z. 30. de Wijs J. 5. Heyer M. 3. Lenz C. 1. Lotka M. (G) 7. Raimund L. 25. Zimmermann M.	27. Boakye B. 2. Hagmann F. 24. Lannert C. 10. Mehlem M. 18. Oppermann L. (G) 22. Rochelt J. 23. Schneider L. 28. Uldrikis R. 44. Yasar E.
Coaches
Anfang M.	Kniat M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Grodowski J. ↓, Rochelt J. ↑,
62', Rasmussen C. ↓, Raimund L. ↑,
74', Worl M. ↓, Boakye B. ↑,
81', El Azzouzi A. ↓, Appelkamp S. ↑,
81', Iyoha E. ↓, Zimmermann M. ↑,
83', Felix J. ↓, Mehlem M. ↑,
83', Telalovic S. ↓, Uldrikis R. ↑,
86', 1 - 0, Itten C. ⚽, Muslija F. (A),
89', Momuluh T. ↓, Yasar E. ↑,
90', Tanaka S. ↓, Breithaupt T. ↑,
90', Suso S. ↓, Heyer M. ↑,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 16 in the zone 2. Bundesliga (Relegation) and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fortuna won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Fortuna: Breithaupt T. (Muscle Injury) Daland J. (Yellow Cards) Hettwer J. (Knee Injury) Lunddal V. (Foot Injury) Rossmann T. (Illness)

There will not play in Arminia: Grodowski J. (Illness) Hilterman J. (Shoulder Injury) Richter D. (Knee Injury) Uldrikis R. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Arminia: Ocansey V. A. F. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Fortuna won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 28:19. (average 2.2:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Fortuna won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 15:3. (average 3:0.6).

Outrights of German 2 Bundesliga for now

Arminia Bielefeld: 0.89%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Arminia Bielefeld	6	1	2	3	10:12	-2	5

Last Results with these Odds

Fortuna Düsseldorf - the odds 2.7 are the expected chance of winning is 35.01%, but this team recently wins 27% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fortuna Düsseldorf
Club Friendly
10.01.26	Slovan Liberec - Fortuna Düsseldorf	1:3 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
20.12.25	Fortuna Düsseldorf - Greuther Fürth	2:1 ✺
14.12.25	Elversberg - Fortuna Düsseldorf	1:0 ✺
05.12.25	Fortuna Düsseldorf - Schalke 04	0:2 ✺
30.11.25	Dynamo Dresden - Fortuna Düsseldorf	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WWLLL
- Arminia Bielefeld
Club Friendly
09.01.26	Arminia Bielefeld - Hansa Rostock	1:0 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
19.12.25	Hertha Berlin - Arminia Bielefeld	1:1 ✺
13.12.25	Arminia Bielefeld - Kaiserslautern	0:0 ✺
06.12.25	Bochum - Arminia Bielefeld	1:0 ✺
30.11.25	Arminia Bielefeld - Preußen Münster	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WTTLL

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
02.08.25	Arminia Bielefeld - Fortuna Düsseldorf	5:1
Club Friendly
13.01.24	Arminia Bielefeld - Fortuna Düsseldorf	2:2
German 2 Bundesliga
09.04.23	Arminia Bielefeld - Fortuna Düsseldorf	2:2
01.10.22	Fortuna Düsseldorf - Arminia Bielefeld	4:1
16.03.18	Fortuna Düsseldorf - Arminia Bielefeld	4:2
14.10.17	Arminia Bielefeld - Fortuna Düsseldorf	0:2
German DFB Pokal
12.08.17	Arminia Bielefeld - Fortuna Düsseldorf	1:3 ET

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