Match Info

NETHERLANDS: EREDIVISIE - ROUND 13

Date: 5 November 2022, Saturday

Location: Fortuna Sittard Stadion (Sittard)

Referee: Higler D. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	ESPN


	Fortuna Sittard		Emmen

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.4	2.8	Watch
	2.5	3.3	2.8
	2.35	3.5	2.9
	2.46	3.25	2.8
	2.49	3.41	3
	2.55	3.2	2.75	Watch
	2.39	3.4	2.88	Watch
	2.55	3.35	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.47 ↑ (1.84)	3.35 ↓ (3.7)	2.85 ↓ (3.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fortuna Sittard
38.4%

Draw
28.3%

Emmen
33.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.9%

25.3%

23.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.1%

24.7%

23.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fortuna Sittard has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Fortuna Sittard's form might have worsened.

Emmen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Emmen's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortuna Sittard than the current prediction. (+13.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Fortuna Sittard, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Emmen than the current prediction. (-10%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Emmen, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
56.5%	26.1%	17.4%

Fortuna Sittard - Emmen Predictions

Users Predictions: 46 users predict this event. Fortuna Sittard will win (votes: 26 - 56.5%). Emmen will win (votes: 8 - 17.4%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 26.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fortuna Sittard: 42.2% – 70.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 13 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie).

Fortuna Sittard has the most likely position - 16 (11.71%), has project points - 35, has currently - 12, has a chance of relegated (31%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Emmen has the most likely position - 18 (18.67%), has project points - 31, has currently - 7, has a chance of relegated (49%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 42, importance 52, match rating 47. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Fortuna Sittard won 1.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Recently Fortuna Sittard have a series of guest games.

Fortuna Sittard will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 19 head-to-head matches Fortuna Sittard won 5 matches, drawn 8 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 31-36.

Including matches at home between the teams Fortuna Sittard won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 15-19.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fortuna Sittard
Dutch Eredivisie
29.10.22	Sparta Rotterdam - Fortuna Sittard	3:1 ✺
22.10.22	Feyenoord - Fortuna Sittard	1:1 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
19.10.22	NEC Nijmegen - Fortuna Sittard	3:2 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
15.10.22	Fortuna Sittard - Waalwijk	0:0 ✺
09.10.22	Vitesse - Fortuna Sittard	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.6 LTLTW
- FC Emmen
Dutch Eredivisie
30.10.22	Emmen - Groningen	0:0 ✺
22.10.22	Vitesse - Emmen	2:1 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
19.10.22	ADO 20 Heemskerk - Emmen	1:2 ET ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
14.10.22	Emmen - Volendam	1:1 ✺
08.10.22	Sparta Rotterdam - Emmen	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 TLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
10.04.21	Fortuna Sittard - Emmen	1:3
18.10.20	Emmen - Fortuna Sittard	2:2
15.02.20	Fortuna Sittard - Emmen	0:0
20.10.19	Emmen - Fortuna Sittard	2:1
15.03.19	Fortuna Sittard - Emmen	3:1
07.10.18	Emmen - Fortuna Sittard	3:3
Dutch Eerste Divisie
26.01.18	Fortuna Sittard - Emmen	1:2

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