Match Info

Date: 8 October 2022, Saturday

Location: Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel (Rotterdam)

Referee: van Boekel P. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Netherlands	ESPN


	Sparta Rotterdam		Emmen

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.3	3.75	Watch
	2.1	3.25	3.7
	2.04	3.25	3.9
	2.05	3.25	3.7
	2.11	3.34	3.91
	2.05	3.2	3.7	Watch
	2.05	3.4	3.58	Watch
	2.04	3.3	3.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↑ (1.8)	3.29 ↓ (3.76)	3.77 ↓ (4.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sparta Rotterdam
46%

Draw
28.8%

Emmen
25.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.9%

24.8%

23.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.4%

24.6%

23.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sparta Rotterdam has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sparta Rotterdam's form might have worsened.

Emmen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sparta Rotterdam than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sparta Rotterdam, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Emmen than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.3%	8.8%	5.9%

Sparta Rotterdam - Emmen Predictions

Users Predictions: Sparta Rotterdam will win (58 of 68 users predict this - 85.29%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.87% – 93.71%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 9 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie).

Sparta Rotterdam has the most likely position - 8 (10.16%), has project points - 42, has currently - 11, has a small chance of relegated (10%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Emmen has the most likely position - 18 (13.01%), has project points - 34, has currently - 5, has a chance of relegated (36%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 45, importance 33, match rating 39. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Sparta Rotterdam won 3.

Sparta Rotterdam is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Emmen has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Sparta Rotterdam is a favorite.

Last 15 head-to-head matches Sparta Rotterdam won 7 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 24-17.

Including matches at home between the teams Sparta Rotterdam won 5 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 18-11.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sparta Rotterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
02.10.22	Waalwijk - Sparta Rotterdam	2:2 ✺
17.09.22	Sparta Rotterdam - Groningen	2:1 ✺
11.09.22	Feyenoord - Sparta Rotterdam	3:0 ✺
03.09.22	Sparta Rotterdam - Volendam	4:0 ✺
27.08.22	Go Ahead Eagles - Sparta Rotterdam	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 TWLWW
- FC Emmen
Dutch Eredivisie
02.10.22	Emmen - Heerenveen	0:0 ✺
18.09.22	Go Ahead Eagles - Emmen	2:0 ✺
10.09.22	Excelsior - Emmen	2:1 ✺
04.09.22	Emmen - AZ Alkmaar	0:3 ✺
27.08.22	Feyenoord - Emmen	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
30.07.22	Sparta Rotterdam - Emmen	3:1
Dutch Eredivisie
05.03.21	Emmen - Sparta Rotterdam	1:1
04.12.20	Sparta Rotterdam - Emmen	2:1
01.03.20	Sparta Rotterdam - Emmen	5:1
15.12.19	Emmen - Sparta Rotterdam	2:0
20.05.18	Sparta Rotterdam - Emmen	1:3
17.05.18	Emmen - Sparta Rotterdam	0:0

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