Match Info

Serie D - Group F - Round 18

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday


	Fossombrone		Chieti

	1	X	2
	1.39	3.9	7.5
	1.49	3.82	6.29	Watch
	2.04	3.35	3.3
	1.85	3.4	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↓ (2.02)	3.62 ↑ (3.33)	5.21 ↑ (3.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fossombrone
55.8%

Draw
26.1%

Chieti
18.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.9%

27.3%

27.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.5%

26.9%

27.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fossombrone has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Fossombrone's performance.

Chieti has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Chieti might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fossombrone than the current prediction. (-10.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Fossombrone that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chieti than the current prediction. (+9.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Chieti could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Fossombrone - Chieti Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Kljajic D. ⚽,
37', 2 - 0, Kyeremateng N. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 10 and 16 in the zone Serie D ~ Group F (Play Out: )).

Fossombrone is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Chieti has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Fossombrone might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fossombrone won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:6. (average 1:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Fossombrone won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Fossombrone	6	3	1	2	6:9	-3	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Fossombrone
Italian Serie D - Group F
21.12.25	Fossombrone - Recanatese	1:0 ✺
14.12.25	Castelfidardo - Fossombrone	1:0 ✺
07.12.25	Fossombrone - Atletico Ascoli	0:0 ✺
30.11.25	Ancona - Fossombrone	1:2 ✺
23.11.25	Fossombrone - San Marino Calcio	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 WLTWW
- Chieti Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group F
21.12.25	Maceratese - Chieti	4:0 ✺
14.12.25	Chieti - Vigor Senigallia	0:1 ✺
07.12.25	Giulianova - Chieti	3:2 ✺
30.11.25	UniPomezia - Chieti	0:0 ✺
23.11.25	Chieti - Ostia Mare	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group F
07.09.25	Chieti - Fossombrone	1:1
12.01.25	Fossombrone - Chieti	1:1
15.09.24	Chieti - Fossombrone	0:1
17.03.24	Fossombrone - Chieti	0:1
05.11.23	Chieti - Fossombrone	3:2

Fossombrone - Chieti: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide