Match Info

Serie D - Group F - Round 16

Date: 14 December 2025, Sunday 🏁 Finished


	Castelfidardo		Fossombrone

	1	X	2
	2.52	3.3	2.42
	2.62	3.53	2.33	Watch
	2.54	3.28	2.41
	2.6	3.25	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.57 ↑ (2.53)	3.34 ↓ (3.39)	2.4 ↓ (2.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Castelfidardo
35.2%

Draw
27.1%

Fossombrone
37.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

35.8%

26.8%

37.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.4%

26.5%

37.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Castelfidardo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Fossombrone has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Castelfidardo than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fossombrone than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Castelfidardo - Fossombrone Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Fossombrone (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
24', 1 - 0, Gallo M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation and 9).

Castelfidardo has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Fossombrone is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Castelfidardo Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group F
07.12.25	Vigor Senigallia - Castelfidardo	2:0 ✺
30.11.25	Castelfidardo - Giulianova	1:1 ✺
23.11.25	Maceratese - Castelfidardo	2:0 ✺
16.11.25	Castelfidardo - UniPomezia	2:3 ✺
09.11.25	Chieti - Castelfidardo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 LTLLW
- FC Fossombrone
Italian Serie D - Group F
07.12.25	Fossombrone - Atletico Ascoli	0:0 ✺
30.11.25	Ancona - Fossombrone	1:2 ✺
23.11.25	Fossombrone - San Marino Calcio	2:0 ✺
16.11.25	L Aquila - Fossombrone	3:0 ✺
09.11.25	Fossombrone - Termoli	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.9 TWWLW

Castelfidardo - Fossombrone

Match Info

Current Win Probability

Castelfidardo - Fossombrone Predictions

Key Events of the Match

Preview

Form

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