Match Info

Serie D - Group F - Round 17

Date: 21 December 2025, Sunday


	Fossombrone		Recanatese

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.3	3.4
	1.98	3.37	3.44	Watch
	1.98	3.44	3.65
	1.94	3.25	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↓ (2.3)	3.34 ↓ (3.38)	3.52 ↑ (2.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fossombrone
46.6%

Draw
27.4%

Recanatese
26%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.3%

26.7%

33.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42%

28.6%

31.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fossombrone has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Fossombrone's performance.

Recanatese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Recanatese might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fossombrone than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Recanatese than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Recanatese could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Fossombrone - Recanatese Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
42', 1 - 0, Casolla F. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 10 and 14 in the zone Serie D ~ Group F (Play Out: )).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Fossombrone is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Fossombrone won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 2:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Fossombrone won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Fossombrone
Italian Serie D - Group F
14.12.25	Castelfidardo - Fossombrone	1:0 ✺
07.12.25	Fossombrone - Atletico Ascoli	0:0 ✺
30.11.25	Ancona - Fossombrone	1:2 ✺
23.11.25	Fossombrone - San Marino Calcio	2:0 ✺
16.11.25	L Aquila - Fossombrone	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 LTWWL
- USD Recanatese 1923
Italian Serie D - Group F
14.12.25	Recanatese - Teramo	1:2 ✺
07.12.25	Sora - Recanatese	1:2 ✺
30.11.25	Recanatese - Maceratese	2:2 ✺
23.11.25	Vigor Senigallia - Recanatese	1:1 ✺
16.11.25	Recanatese - Chieti	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 LWTTW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group F
23.02.25	Fossombrone - Recanatese	4:1
23.10.24	Recanatese - Fossombrone	2:0

Fossombrone - Recanatese: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide