Match Info

Southern League Premier South - Round 40

Date: 18 April 2025, Friday


	Frome Town		Dorchester Town

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.4	1.93
	3.25	3.65	1.93
	3.55	3.63	1.94
	3.54	3.63	1.97
	3.43	3.64	1.98
	3.25	3.65	1.93
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.37 ↑ (3.23)	3.6 ↑ (3.54)	1.95 ↓ (2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Frome Town
27.3%

Draw
25.5%

Dorchester Town
47.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.3%

25.9%

45.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.2%

24.9%

47.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Frome Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Dorchester Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Frome Town than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dorchester Town than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Frome Town - Dorchester Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
27', 0 - 1, Koszela O. (Pen),
39', 1 - 1, Hopkins A. ⚽,
45+1', 1 - 2, Koszela O. (Pen),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
70', 2 - 2, Teale S. ⚽,
89', 2 - 3, Pitman B. ⚽,
90+5', Pitman B. 🟥,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 21 in the zone Relegation and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Southern League Premier South (Play Offs: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Frome won 3.

Frome is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Dorchester is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Dorchester will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Frome won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 10:21 (average 0.9:1.9).

Including matches at home between the teams Frome won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 4:12 (average 0.8:2.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Frome Town
English Southern League South Division
12.04.25	Swindon Supermarine - Frome Town	1:0 ✺
05.04.25	Frome Town - Chertsey Town	0:1 ✺
29.03.25	Frome Town - Hungerford Town	0:1 ✺
25.03.25	Frome Town - Wimborne Town	0:1 ✺
22.03.25	Basingstoke Town - Frome Town	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LLLLW
- Dorchester Town
English Southern League South Division
12.04.25	Dorchester Town - Walton & Hersham	1:0 ✺
05.04.25	Gloucester City - Dorchester Town	3:3 ✺
29.03.25	Totton - Dorchester Town	1:1 ✺
22.03.25	Dorchester Town - Marlow	6:0 ✺
15.03.25	Chertsey Town - Dorchester Town	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 WTTWW

Latest Head to Head

English Southern League South Division
07.09.24	Dorchester Town - Frome Town	4:0
12.02.19	Dorchester Town - Frome Town	0:1
27.11.18	Frome Town - Dorchester Town	0:1
English Southern Premier League
15.11.17	Frome Town - Dorchester Town	3:1
11.09.17	Dorchester Town - Frome Town	1:4
18.10.16	Dorchester Town - Frome Town	3:0
14.09.16	Frome Town - Dorchester Town	0:4

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