Match Info

Date: 5 March 2022, Saturday


	Fuenlabrada		Burgos

	1	X	2
	2.3	3	3.6	Watch
	2.15	2.95	3.25
	2.2	3	3.65	Watch
	2.21	2.95	3.5
	2.33	3.02	3.73
	2.6	2.87	3	Watch
	2.19	3.08	3.72	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↓ (2.95)	2.98 ↑ (2.85)	3.49 ↑ (2.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fuenlabrada
41.3%

Draw
31.6%

Burgos
27%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.5%

32.6%

35.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.6%

23.4%

50.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fuenlabrada has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Fuenlabrada's performance.

Burgos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Burgos might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fuenlabrada than the current prediction. (-18.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Fuenlabrada that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Burgos than the current prediction. (+23.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Burgos could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Fuenlabrada - Burgos Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 21 in the zone Relegation and 12).

Fuenlabrada has the most likely position - 21 (32.21%), has project points - 41, has currently - 26, has a good chance of relegated (76%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Burgos has the most likely position - 14 (10.43%), has project points - 55, has currently - 38, has a very small chance of relegated (3%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (5%), has a very small chance of promoted (1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 26, small importance 28, small match rating 27. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Fuenlabrada is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Burgos is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Fuenlabrada could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Fuenlabrada will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Fuenlabrada won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Fuenlabrada won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CF Fuenlabrada
Spanish LaLiga2
25.02.22	Almería - Fuenlabrada	3:1 ✺
20.02.22	Fuenlabrada - Alcorcón	2:2 ✺
13.02.22	Eibar - Fuenlabrada	0:0 ✺
06.02.22	Fuenlabrada - Valladolid	0:0 ✺
30.01.22	Cartagena - Fuenlabrada	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LTTTL
- Burgos CF
Spanish LaLiga2
27.02.22	Eibar - Burgos	2:0 ✺
20.02.22	Burgos - Real Oviedo	0:1 ✺
13.02.22	Las Palmas - Burgos	0:2 ✺
04.02.22	Burgos - Alcorcón	3:1 ✺
29.01.22	Lugo - Burgos	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
11.12.21	Burgos - Fuenlabrada	2:0
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
19.05.19	Fuenlabrada - Burgos	1:0
07.01.19	Burgos - Fuenlabrada	1:0

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