Match Info

SPAIN: Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 12

Date: 8 November 2024, Friday

Location: Alfredo di Stéfano Stadium (Madrid)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	FEF TV, Real Madrid TV


	Real Madrid Castilla		Intercity

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.25	4.5
	1.82	3.3	3.7
	1.81	3.35	4.4
	1.86	3.4	4.27
	1.86	3.32	4	Watch
	1.87	3.15	4.36
	1.81	3.35	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↓ (2.04)	3.3 ↑ (2.88)	4.23 ↑ (4.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Madrid Castilla
50.4%

Draw
27.9%

Intercity
21.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.2%

31.9%

22.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46%

31.3%

22.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid Castilla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Real Madrid Castilla's performance.

Intercity has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid Castilla than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Intercity than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Real Madrid Castilla - Intercity Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pineiro del Alamo D. (G) 29. Rivas M. 2. Lorenzo 4. Pujol E. 22. Jimenez D. 27. Fortuny P. 6. Andres C. 23. Yusi 9. Munoz V. 7. Garcia G. 26. De Llanos H.	13. Casado S. (G) 3. Mendibe M. 4. Hernandez A. 20. Codina M. 17. Jimenez E. 7. Zequi 22. Montero Sergio 5. Llonch P. 23. Gonzalez N. 14. Elady 9. Locadia J.
Substitutes
16. Antonio David 25. de Luis M. (G) 33. Perea C. 28. Ribes K. 17. Ruiz D. 36. Yanez D. 19. Zuniga L.	18. Burlamaqui A. 27. Carratala E. 19. De Santis J. 1. Freixanet P. (G) 10. Martinez B. 28. Martinez J. 8. Nsue E. 11. Roige Rodriguez P. 25. Zhernovenko I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
16', Elady ↓, Burlamaqui A. ↑,
19', Jimenez E. ↓, Martinez B. ↑,
27', Pujol E. 🟨,
33', 1 - 0, Garcia G. (Pen),
38', Codina M. 🟨,
42', 2 - 0, De Llanos H. ⚽, Rivas M. (A),
45', Fortuny P. ↓, Perea C. ↑,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Montero Sergio ↓, Roige Rodriguez P. ↑,
51', 3 - 0, De Llanos H. ⚽,
59', Zequi ↓, Nsue E. ↑,
61', 4 - 0, Garcia G. ⚽, Andres C. (A),
64', Lorenzo 🟨,
68', De Llanos H. ↓, Ruiz D. ↑,
68', Munoz V. ↓, Yanez D. ↑,
72', Locadia J. ↓, De Santis J. ↑,
74', De Santis J. 🟨,
78', Jimenez D. 🟨,
79', 5 - 0, Perea C. ⚽,
80', Lorenzo ↓, Zuniga L. ↑,
80', Garcia G. ↓, Antonio David ↑,
90+2', 🟨,

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 15).

Real Madrid Castilla is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Intercity is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Real Madrid Castilla could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Real Madrid Castilla is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Real Madrid Castilla won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4:3 (average 2:1.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Real Madrid Castilla won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:3

Last Results with these Odds

Real Madrid Castilla - the odds 2.04 are the expected chance of winning is 45.17%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Madrid Castilla
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
02.11.24	Atlético Madrid B - Real Madrid Castilla	1:1 ✺
27.10.24	Real Madrid Castilla - Algeciras	1:1 ✺
20.10.24	Alcorcón - Real Madrid Castilla	2:1 ✺
12.10.24	Real Madrid Castilla - Yeclano Deportivo	1:1 ✺
05.10.24	Sevilla B - Real Madrid Castilla	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 TTLTL
- CF Intercity
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
26.10.24	Marbella - Intercity	2:1 ✺
20.10.24	Intercity - Ibiza	0:1 ✺
13.10.24	Ceuta - Intercity	0:2 ✺
05.10.24	Intercity - Yeclano Deportivo	1:1 ✺
29.09.24	Antequera - Intercity	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 LLWTT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
18.05.24	Intercity - Real Madrid Castilla	0:1
16.12.23	Real Madrid Castilla - Intercity	3:3

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