Match Info

National League North - Round 19

Date: 25 November 2025, Tuesday


	Merthyr Town		Leamington

	1	X	2
	1.5	4	5
	1.55	4.15	4.95
	1.56	4.17	5.37
	1.69	3.99	4.27	Watch
	1.54	3.92	5.11
	1.55	4	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↓ (1.69)	4.04 ↑ (3.99)	4.95 ↑ (4.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Merthyr Town
58.7%

Draw
22.7%

Leamington
18.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55%

23.3%

21.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.8%

22.6%

21.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Merthyr Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Leamington has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Merthyr Town than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leamington than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	16.7%	0%

Merthyr Town - Leamington Predictions

Users Predictions: Merthyr Town will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Merthyr Town will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', 1 - 0, Smerdon N. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
55', 2 - 0, Smerdon N. ⚽,
71', 3 - 0, Rees R. ⚽,
76', 4 - 0, Rees R. ⚽,
90+1', 4 - 1, Thompson S. ⚽,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ National League North (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 24 in the zone Relegation).

Merthyr is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Leamington has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Leamington may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Merthyr is considered a favorite.

We predict that Merthyr will win today's game, with odds of 1.65.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Merthyr won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 1:5. (average 0.3:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Merthyr won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Merthyr Town
English National League North
22.11.25	Merthyr Town - Alfreton Town	6:2 ✺
English FA Trophy
15.11.25	Merthyr Town - Hanwell Town	2:3 ✺
English National League North
11.11.25	Merthyr Town - South Shields	3:1 ✺
08.11.25	Bedford Town - Merthyr Town	3:4 ✺
04.11.25	AFC Telford United - Merthyr Town	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.6 WLWWW
- Leamington
English National League North
22.11.25	Chester - Leamington	2:0 ✺
English FA Trophy
15.11.25	Leamington - Maidenhead United	2:0 ✺
English National League North
08.11.25	Leamington - Marine	0:1 ✺
04.11.25	King`s Lynn Town - Leamington	2:0 ✺
25.10.25	Oxford City - Leamington	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LWLLT

Latest Head to Head

English Southern Premier League
22.11.16	Merthyr Town - Leamington	1:1
16.08.16	Leamington - Merthyr Town	1:0
05.03.16	Merthyr Town - Leamington	0:2
10.10.15	Leamington - Merthyr Town	1:0

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