Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 7

Date: 30 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla (Zabrze)

Referee: Kos D. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol
Croatia	Arena Sport 5
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Tubi TV


	Górnik Zabrze		Motor Lublin

	1	X	2
	1.55	4.1	4.75	Watch
	1.75	3.8	4.1
	1.55	4.25	5.15	Watch
	1.56	4.41	5.57
	1.55	4.41	5.22	Watch
	1.75	3.6	4
	1.62	4.28	4.96	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↓ (1.72)	4.12 ↑ (3.65)	4.82 ↑ (4.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Górnik Zabrze
57.9%

Draw
22.7%

Motor Lublin
19.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.6%

25.2%

21.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.6%

24.7%

20.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Górnik Zabrze has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

Motor Lublin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Górnik Zabrze than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Motor Lublin than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80.8%	7.7%	11.5%

Górnik Zabrze - Motor Lublin Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Górnik Zabrze (1.16) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Górnik Zabrze (2.06) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH 0, 1st Half - Górnik Zabrze (2.01) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH -1 - Górnik Zabrze (2.44) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Górnik Zabrze will win (21 of 26 users predict this - 80.77%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.62% – 95.92%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Górnik Zabrze will win (11 of 13 users predict this - 84.62%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 17 Selected Experts predict this event. Górnik Zabrze (votes: 15 - 88.2%). Motor (votes: 1 - 5.9%). Tie (votes: 1 - 5.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lubik M. (G) 81. Kmet M. 26. Janicki R. 20. Josema 64. Janza E. (C) 18. Ambros L. 8. Hellebrand P. 14. Kubicki J. 30. Sow O. 23. Liseth S. 11. Ismaheel T.	1. Brkic I. (G) 28. Stolarski P. 39. Bartos M. 3. Matthys H. 24. Luberecki F. 7. Rodrigues I. 21. Labojko J. 68. Wolski B. (C) 26. Krol M. 9. Czubak K. 19. Van Hoeven B.
Substitutes
28. Donio B. 19. Dziegielewski N. 79. Goh Young-Jun 33. Khlan M. 99. Loska T. (G) 17. Lukoszek K. 15. Massimo R. 16. Olkowski P. 10. Podolski L. 27. Szala D. 5. Szczesniak K. 74. Tsirigotis T.	77. Dadashov R. 42. Ede B. 23. Haxha F. 2. Meyer P. K. 30. Ndiaye M. 47. Palacz K. 6. Samper S. 8. Scalet M. 33. Tratnik G. (G) 17. Wojcik F.
Coaches
Gasparik M.	Stolarski M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
26', Sow O. 🟨,
33', Ambros L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
57', Sow O. ↓, Massimo R. ↑,
57', Van Hoeven B. ↓, Ndiaye M. ↑,
58', 0 - 1, Ndiaye M. ⚽,
58', Ndiaye M. 🟨,
62', Ismaheel T. ↓, Podolski L. ↑,
62', Liseth S. ↓, Tsirigotis T. ↑,
62', Ambros L. ↓, Khlan M. ↑,
64', Stolarski P. 🟨,
65', Stolarski P. ↓, Wojcik F. ↑,
65', Czubak K. ↓, Dadashov R. ↑,
72', Wojcik F. 🟨,
78', Wolski B. ↓, Scalet M. ↑,
78', Bartos M. ↓, Meyer P. K. ↑,
78', Kmet M. ↓, Lukoszek K. ↑,
78', Khlan M. 🟨,
90+4', Podolski L. 🟨,
90+6', Brkic I. 🟨,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: ) and 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, Górnik Zabrze is the team to beat.

There will not play in Górnik Zabrze: Sacek M. (Leg Injury)

There will not play in Motor: Karasek K. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Górnik Zabrze: Zahovic L. (Foot Injury)

There are questionable in Motor: Najemski A. (Knee Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Górnik Zabrze won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:1. (average 2:0.5).

Including home match between the teams, Górnik Zabrze won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Górnik Zabrze
Polish Ekstraklasa
23.08.25	Górnik Zabrze - GKS Katowice	3:0 ✺
17.08.25	Pogoń Szczecin - Górnik Zabrze	0:3 ✺
08.08.25	Górnik Zabrze - Termalica Nieciecza	0:1 ✺
02.08.25	Lech Poznań - Górnik Zabrze	2:1 ✺
26.07.25	Piast Gliwice - Górnik Zabrze	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 WWLLW
- Motor Lublin
Polish Ekstraklasa
23.08.25	Korona Kielce - Motor Lublin	2:0 ✺
16.08.25	Motor Lublin - Piast Gliwice	0:0 ✺
11.08.25	Lechia Gdańsk - Motor Lublin	3:3 ✺
26.07.25	Pogoń Szczecin - Motor Lublin	4:1 ✺
20.07.25	Motor Lublin - Arka Gdynia	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LTTLW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
15.03.25	Górnik Zabrze - Motor Lublin	4:0
13.09.24	Motor Lublin - Górnik Zabrze	1:0

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