Match Info

Polish Cup - Final

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday

Location: PGE Narodowy (Warsaw)

Referee: Przybyl J. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	Polsat Sport Fight, TVP 1, TVP Polonia, TVP Sport app, TVP Sport


	Górnik Zabrze		Raków Częstochowa

	1	X	2
	2.62	2.92	2.82
	2.77	3.05	3
	2.73	2.9	2.84
	2.63	2.7	2.75
	2.7	2.88	2.82	Watch
	2.6	3.25	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.68 ↑ (2.55)	2.95 ↓ (3.35)	2.8 ↑ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Górnik Zabrze
34.9%

Draw
31.7%

Raków Częstochowa
33.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36%

27.4%

36.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.6%

27%

36.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Górnik Zabrze has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Raków Częstochowa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Górnik Zabrze than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Raków Częstochowa than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Górnik Zabrze - Raków Częstochowa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lubik M. (G) 61. Sacek M. 26. Janicki R. 20. Josema 64. Janza E. (C) 14. Kubicki J. 8. Hellebrand P. 13. Sadilek L. 33. Khlan M. 23. Liseth S. 15. Massimo R.	48. Zych O. (G) 27. Dawidowicz P. 25. Racovitan B. 4. Svarnas S. 7. Tudor F. (C) 5. Bulat M. 6. Repka O. 20. Silva J. C. 9. Makuch P. 10. Lopez I. 18. Brunes J.
Substitutes
18. Ambros L. 4. Bochniewicz P. 7. Ikia Dimi Y. 99. Loska T. (G) 17. Lukoszek K. 16. Olkowski P. 10. Podolski L. 36. Rakoczy M. 67. Zmrzly O.	11. Adriano 19. Ameyaw M. 24. Arsenic Z. 80. Diaby-Fadiga L. 30. Kochergin V. 2. Mosor A. 8. Pienko T. 17. Rocha L. 1. Trelowski K. (G)
Coaches
Gasparik M.	Tomczyk L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
32', 1 - 0, Massimo R. ⚽, Janza E. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Makuch P. ↓, Diaby-Fadiga L. ↑,
51', Lopez I. 🟨,
57', Dawidowicz P. ↓, Ameyaw M. ↑,
58', Repka O. 🟨,
65', 2 - 0, Khlan M. ⚽,
66', Silva J. C. ↓, Adriano ↑,
66', Lopez I. ↓, Rocha L. ↑,
74', Massimo R. ↓, Zmrzly O. ↑,
77', Janza E. 🟨,
83', Sacek M. ↓, Olkowski P. ↑,
83', Khlan M. ↓, Ikia Dimi Y. ↑,
86', Ikia Dimi Y. 🟨,
89', Janza E. ↓, Ambros L. ↑,
90', Liseth S. ↓, Podolski L. ↑,
90+2', Brunes J. 🟥,
90+4', Lubik M. 🟨,
90+5', 🟨,

Preview

Neutral location - PGE Narodowy.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Górnik Zabrze won 3.

Górnik Zabrze is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Raków is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Raków may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Górnik Zabrze won 8 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 20:17. (average 1.3:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Górnik Zabrze won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 13:7. (average 1.6:0.9).

Last Results with these Odds

Górnik Zabrze - the odds 2.55 are the expected chance of winning is 35.96%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Górnik Zabrze
Polish Ekstraklasa
24.04.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Górnik Zabrze	1:2 ✺
18.04.26	Górnik Zabrze - Korona Kielce	1:0 ✺
11.04.26	Legia Warsaw - Górnik Zabrze	1:1 ✺
Polish Cup
08.04.26	Zawisza Bydgoszcz - Górnik Zabrze	0:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
04.04.26	Górnik Zabrze - Cracovia	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 WWTWW
- Raków Częstochowa
Polish Ekstraklasa
25.04.26	Lechia Gdańsk - Raków Częstochowa	1:2 ✺
19.04.26	Raków Częstochowa - Cracovia	4:1 ✺
12.04.26	Motor Lublin - Raków Częstochowa	1:1 ✺
Polish Cup
09.04.26	Raków Częstochowa - GKS Katowice	5:4 penalties ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
04.04.26	Raków Częstochowa - Widzew Łódź	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 WWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
15.03.26	Górnik Zabrze - Raków Częstochowa	3:1
15.09.25	Raków Częstochowa - Górnik Zabrze	0:1
21.02.25	Raków Częstochowa - Górnik Zabrze	1:0
18.08.24	Górnik Zabrze - Raków Częstochowa	0:0
19.04.24	Raków Częstochowa - Górnik Zabrze	0:1
22.10.23	Górnik Zabrze - Raków Częstochowa	2:1
18.02.23	Raków Częstochowa - Górnik Zabrze	2:0

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