Match Info

III Liga - Group I - Round 33

Date: 23 May 2026, Saturday

Location: GIEKSA Arena (Belchatow)


	GKS Bełchatów		Jagiellonia II Białystok

	1	X	2
	2.28	3.6	2.52
	2.23	3.95	2.44
	2.2	4.35	2.45	Watch
	2.25	3.5	2.5
	2.26	3.78	2.46	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↓ (2.73)	3.84 ↑ (3.43)	2.47 ↑ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

GKS Bełchatów
40.1%

Draw
23.5%

Jagiellonia II Białystok
36.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.5%

26.7%

39.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.7%

26.5%

39.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

GKS Bełchatów has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in GKS Bełchatów's performance.

Jagiellonia II Białystok has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for GKS Bełchatów than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with GKS Bełchatów that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jagiellonia II Białystok than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

GKS Bełchatów - Jagiellonia II Białystok Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
17', 1 - 0, Poplawski K. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
66', 1 - 1, ⚽,
90+4', 1 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 14 and 9).

Bełchatów has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Jagiellonia II is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Jagiellonia II may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bełchatów won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:5. (average 1.2:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Bełchatów won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0. (average 1:0).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Jagiellonia II	10	4	3	3	22:20	2	15

Last Results with these Odds

GKS Bełchatów - the odds 2.73 are the expected chance of winning is 33.52%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- GKS Bełchatów
Polish Division 3 - Group I
16.05.26	ŁKS Łomża - GKS Bełchatów	5:0 ✺
13.05.26	GKS Bełchatów - Widzew Łódź II	1:3 ✺
08.05.26	Wikielec - GKS Bełchatów	0:1 ✺
02.05.26	GKS Bełchatów - Olimpia Elbląg	3:1 ✺
26.04.26	Wigry Suwałki - GKS Bełchatów	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 LLWWT
- Jagiellonia II Białystok
Polish Division 3 - Group I
17.05.26	Jagiellonia II Białystok - Troszyn	0:1 ✺
13.05.26	Mławianka Mława - Jagiellonia II Białystok	0:1 ✺
10.05.26	Jagiellonia II Białystok - ŁKS Łomża	0:2 ✺
30.04.26	Warta Sieradz - Jagiellonia II Białystok	3:3 ✺
25.04.26	Jagiellonia II Białystok - Widzew Łódź II	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 LWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 3 - Group I
08.11.25	Jagiellonia II Białystok - GKS Bełchatów	1:0
15.03.25	Jagiellonia II Białystok - GKS Bełchatów	1:2
21.08.24	GKS Bełchatów - Jagiellonia II Białystok	1:0
18.05.24	GKS Bełchatów - Jagiellonia II Białystok	1:0
29.10.23	Jagiellonia II Białystok - GKS Bełchatów	3:2

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