Match Info

Premier League - Round 31

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Qäbälä Şähär Stadionu (Gabala)

Referee: Mammadov I. (Aze)

Where to Watch on TV:


Azerbaijan	CBC Sport


	Gabala		Qarabağ Agdam

	1	X	2
	5	3.8	1.52
	5.35	4.25	1.45	Watch
	7.5	4.6	1.42
	4.56	3.76	1.66	Watch
	5.75	4	1.44
	4.95	4.95	1.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.52 ↓ (7.26)	4.23 ↓ (4.38)	1.5 ↑ (1.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gabala
16.7%

Draw
21.8%

Qarabağ Agdam
61.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

12.5%

20.7%

66.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.5%

16.7%

53.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gabala has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

Qarabağ Agdam has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Qarabağ Agdam might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gabala than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Qarabağ Agdam than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Qarabağ Agdam, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Gabala - Qarabağ Agdam Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Qarabağ (1.96) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Qarabağ Agdam will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Qarabağ Agdam will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Qarabağ (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Agayev S. (C) 27. Ahmadov E. 24. Akinade I. 13. Aliyev N. 16. Amoah I. 50. Ba Loua A. 3. Eduardo Kunde 33. Keita S. 30. Owusu P. 10. Shahniyarov S. 6. Sierra J.	99. Kochalski M. (G) 27. Bayramov T. 17. Duran C. 55. Huseynov B. (C) 8. Jankovic M. 20. Kady Borges 15. Leandro Andrade 2. Matheus Silva 81. Medina K. 35. Pedro Bicalho 10. Zoubir A.
Substitutes
93. Cafarov R. (G) 74. Damadayev S. 94. Hushanov H. (G) 22. Iskandarov F. 11. Mammadov A. 14. Massoumou D. J. 28. Musayev M. 70. Quimbila P. 66. Rashidov N. 12. Sangare I.	11. Addai E. 97. Buntic F. (G) 32. Cabrayilzada H. 18. Dani Bolt 24. Gnali J. 21. Kashchuk O. 89. Ramazanov A. (G) 77. Sheydayev R.
Coaches
Tskhadadze K.	Qurbanov Q.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
29', 0 - 1, Kady Borges ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
49', Duran C. 🟨,
57', 1 - 1, Akinade I. ⚽,
66', Eduardo Kunde ↓, Musayev M. ↑,
66', Shahniyarov S. ↓, Massoumou D. J. ↑,
74', Ba Loua A. ↓, Rashidov N. ↑,
78', Ahmadov E. 🟨,
79', Bayramov T. (Penalty Awarded),
82', Rashidov N. 🟨,
85', Akinade I. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gabala won 0.

Gabala has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Qarabağ has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Gabala may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Qarabağ is the clear favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Gabala won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 16 matches, and goals 10:49. (average 0.5:2.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Gabala won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 9 matches, and goals 5:24. (average 0.5:2.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Qarabag	5	4	1	0	9:4	5	13
8	Gabala	6	1	1	4	2:7	-5	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Gabala
Azerbaijan Premier League
03.05.26	Zira - Gabala	1:0 ✺
25.04.26	Gabala - Araz Naxçıvan	1:1 ✺
19.04.26	Sumgayit - Gabala	1:0 ✺
12.04.26	Gabala - İmişli	0:1 ✺
05.04.26	Kapaz - Gabala	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LTLLW
- FK Qarabağ Agdam
Azerbaijan Premier League
04.05.26	Qarabağ Agdam - Turan Tovuz	2:1 ✺
30.04.26	Neftchi Baku - Qarabağ Agdam	2:1 ✺
26.04.26	Neftchi Baku - Qarabağ Agdam	1:5 ✺
Azerbaijan Cup
22.04.26	Sabah - Qarabağ Agdam	2:1 ✺
Azerbaijan Premier League
18.04.26	Qarabağ Agdam - Sabah	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan Premier League
21.12.25	Gabala - Qarabağ Agdam	1:2
26.09.25	Qarabağ Agdam - Gabala	2:0
Azerbaijan Cup
04.12.24	Gabala - Qarabağ Agdam	0:2
Azerbaijan Premier League
20.04.24	Qarabağ Agdam - Gabala	2:2
28.02.24	Gabala - Qarabağ Agdam	0:4
04.12.23	Qarabağ Agdam - Gabala	3:0
25.09.23	Gabala - Qarabağ Agdam	1:2

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