Match Info

Premier Division - Round 14

Date: 1 May 2026, Friday

Location: Eamonn Deacy Park (Galway)

Referee: Hennessey R. (Irl)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ireland	LOI TV


	Galway United		St Patricks Athletic

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.4	2.1	Watch
	3.7	3.4	1.87
	3.3	3.3	2.1
	3.56	3.58	2.14
	3.39	3.54	2.1	Watch
	3.25	3.3	2.05
	3.38	3.38	2.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.43 ↓ (4.64)	3.41 ↓ (3.51)	2.07 ↑ (1.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Galway United
27.3%

Draw
27.4%

St Patricks Athletic
45.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.1%

26.6%

53.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.7%

26.1%

54.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Galway United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Galway United's performance.

St Patricks Athletic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and St Patricks Athletic might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Galway United than the current prediction. (-7.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Galway United that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for St Patricks Athletic than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that St Patricks Athletic could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.4%	61.5%	23.1%

Galway United - St Patricks Athletic Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Galway United will win (votes: 2 - 15.4%). St Patricks will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 61.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 35% – 88%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Watts E. (G) 3. Barratt C. 12. Facchineri G. 5. Brouder K. 30. Kazeem A. 8. Bolger A. 14. Wolfe M. 11. Twardek K. 10. Hurley D. (C) 24. McCarthy E. 7. Walsh S.	94. Anang J. (G) 23. Brown J. 4. Redmond J. (C) 5. Grivosti T. 24. Turner L. 10. Leavy K. 8. Forrester C. 6. Lennon J. 19. Baggley B. 7. Elbouzedi Z. 27. Edmondson R.
Substitutes
16. Cunha H. (G) 20. Devitt L. 29. Fleuriau Chateau N. 4. Keohane J. 9. Lomboto F. 22. McCormack C. 23. Pierrot F. 6. Piesold A. 15. Williams W.	15. Boyce R. 3. Breslin A. 2. Hoare S. 18. Mata M. A. 11. McClelland J. 49. Molloy S. (G) 16. Nugent D. 42. Nzingo G. 35. Rooney S.
Coaches
Caulfield J.	Kenny S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
4', Wolfe M. 🟨,
13', 0 - 1, Edmondson R. ⚽, Elbouzedi Z. (A),
38', Anang J. 🟨,
40', Lennon J. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
54', 0 - 2, Forrester C. ⚽, Elbouzedi Z. (A),
61', 1 - 2, Bolger A. ⚽,
63', Wolfe M. ↓, Lomboto F. ↑,
63', Walsh S. ↓, Pierrot F. ↑,
63', Kazeem A. ↓, Piesold A. ↑,
64', Twardek K. ↓, Williams W. ↑,
66', Edmondson R. 🟨,
71', Forrester C. ↓, Nugent D. ↑,
71', Elbouzedi Z. ↓, Breslin A. ↑,
76', Edmondson R. ↓, Mata M. A. ↑,
83', Barratt C. ↓, Devitt L. ↑,
90', Leavy K. ↓, McClelland J. ↑,
90+4', 2 - 2, Bolger A. ⚽, Piesold A. (A),

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 6 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Galway United won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Recently, Galway United has had a series of away games.

In this match, St Patricks is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Galway United: McGuinness D. (Injury)

There will not play in St Patricks: Power S. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in St Patricks: Mata M. A. (Inactive) Palmer R. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Galway United won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 20:29. (average 1:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Galway United won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:12. (average 1:1.3).

Outrights of Irish Premier Division for now

St. Patricks: 20.64%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	St. Patricks	32	17	8	7	52:25	27	59
7	Galway	32	9	11	12	42:48	-6	38

Last Results with these Odds

St Patricks Athletic - the odds 1.75 are the expected chance of winning is 53.26%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Galway United
Irish Premier Division
24.04.26	Waterford - Galway United	1:1 ✺
17.04.26	Dundalk - Galway United	2:1 ✺
06.04.26	Drogheda United - Galway United	2:3 ✺
03.04.26	Galway United - Derry City	2:1 ✺
20.03.26	Shamrock Rovers - Galway United	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 TLWWL
- St Patricks Athletic
Irish Premier Division
24.04.26	St Patricks Athletic - Bohemians Dublin	3:1 ✺
17.04.26	Drogheda United - St Patricks Athletic	1:3 ✺
10.04.26	St Patricks Athletic - Shamrock Rovers	0:1 ✺
06.04.26	Dundalk - St Patricks Athletic	2:0 ✺
03.04.26	St Patricks Athletic - Sligo Rovers	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Irish Premier Division
02.03.26	St Patricks Athletic - Galway United	1:0
19.09.25	St Patricks Athletic - Galway United	1:1
Irish FAI Cup
14.09.25	St Patricks Athletic - Galway United	3:1 ET
Irish Premier Division
20.06.25	Galway United - St Patricks Athletic	3:1
02.05.25	St Patricks Athletic - Galway United	2:0
21.02.25	Galway United - St Patricks Athletic	2:1
18.10.24	St Patricks Athletic - Galway United	2:1

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