Match Info

Cymru Premier - Round 6

Date: 21 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Essity Stadium (Flint)


	Gap Connahs Quay		Briton Ferry Llansawel

	1	X	2
	1.66	3.6	4.2
	1.41	4.65	5.9
	1.34	5.11	7.31
	1.44	4.68	6.37	Watch
	1.4	4.4	6.5
	1.37	4.5	6.79
	1.42	4.5	6.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.43 ↓ (1.86)	4.49 ↑ (3.53)	6.2 ↑ (3.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gap Connahs Quay
64.5%

Draw
20.6%

Briton Ferry Llansawel
14.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.4%

26.1%

24.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.9%

26.9%

23.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gap Connahs Quay has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Gap Connahs Quay's performance.

Briton Ferry Llansawel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Briton Ferry Llansawel might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gap Connahs Quay than the current prediction. (-13.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Gap Connahs Quay that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Briton Ferry Llansawel than the current prediction. (+8.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Briton Ferry Llansawel could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Gap Connahs Quay - Briton Ferry Llansawel Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Connahs Quay will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Briton Ferry will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Connahs Quay (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 - Briton Ferry (1.67) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Connahs Quay (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Briton Ferry (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Margetson K. (G) 26. Cook J. 20. Cowan D. 6. Edwards K. 14. Edwards N. 12. Franklin H. 21. Fregapane M. 17. Hughes R. 3. Marriott Ch. 5. Nash B. 8. West C.	13. Fuller W. (G) 20. Anderson O. 2. Bates L. 22. Bates M. 23. Fanning J. 4. Gammond A. 3. Jenkins K. 12. Owen R. 8. Price T. 19. Smith C. 9. Walters T.
Substitutes
35. Berry R. (G) 11. Bratley C. 32. Hughes J. 7. Kenny J. 4. Roberts D. 23. Sharif A. 18. Woodcock M.	7. Dyer R. 5. Evans K. 18. George R. 21. Packer D. 6. Williams K.
Coaches
Disney J.	Dyer A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
34', 0 - 1, Walters T. ⚽,
39', 1 - 1, Franklin H. ⚽,
39', Price T. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', 2 - 1, West C. ⚽,
51', Jenkins K. 🟨,
54', 2 - 2, Anderson O. ⚽,
65', Smith C. ↓, Dyer R. ↑,
71', Cook J. ↓, Sharif A. ↑,
71', Fregapane M. ↓, Woodcock M. ↑,
71', Cowan D. ↓, Roberts D. ↑,
71', Marriott Ch. ↓, Bratley C. ↑,
83', 3 - 2, Woodcock M. ⚽,
84', Bates M. ↓, Williams K. ↑,
84', Anderson O. ↓, George R. ↑,
88', Price T. 🟨,
89', Bates L. ↓, Evans K. ↑,
90+1', Dyer R. 🟨,
90+4', 4 - 2, Franklin H. ⚽,
90+7', Walters T. 🟨,

Preview

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Briton Ferry may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Connahs Quay is a strong favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Connahs Quay won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:4. (average 1.8:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Connahs Quay won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gap Connahs Quay
Welsh Cymru Premier
05.12.25	Gap Connahs Quay - Colwyn Bay	2:1 ✺
29.11.25	Llanelli - Gap Connahs Quay	1:2 ✺
Welsh FA Cup
21.11.25	Llandudno - Gap Connahs Quay	2:1 ✺
Welsh Cymru Premier
08.11.25	Gap Connahs Quay - Pen-y-Bont	4:0 ✺
01.11.25	Cardiff Metropolitan - Gap Connahs Quay	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WWLWW
- Briton Ferry Llansawel
Welsh Cymru Premier
16.12.25	Cardiff Metropolitan - Briton Ferry Llansawel	2:2 ✺
09.12.25	Briton Ferry Llansawel - The New Saints	0:2 ✺
29.11.25	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Flint Town United	2:2 ✺
07.11.25	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Bala Town	2:0 ✺
Welsh League Cup
04.11.25	Cambrian United - Briton Ferry Llansawel	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 TLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru Premier
11.10.25	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Gap Connahs Quay	0:3
29.03.25	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Gap Connahs Quay	1:0
08.02.25	Gap Connahs Quay - Briton Ferry Llansawel	0:1
27.10.24	Gap Connahs Quay - Briton Ferry Llansawel	2:1
31.08.24	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Gap Connahs Quay	1:5

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