Match Info

Cymru Premier - Championship Group - Round 32

Date: 18 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Essity Stadium (Flint)

Referee: Jones A. (Wal)


	Gap Connahs Quay		Colwyn Bay

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.45	3.15
	2.15	3.93	3.04
	2.06	4.08	3	Watch
	2.1	3.4	3.1
	2.14	3.75	2.99
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↑ (1.74)	3.72 ↓ (3.73)	3.06 ↓ (4.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gap Connahs Quay
44.4%

Draw
25.1%

Colwyn Bay
30.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.8%

24.6%

22.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54%

24.1%

22.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gap Connahs Quay has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Gap Connahs Quay's form might have worsened.

Colwyn Bay has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Colwyn Bay's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gap Connahs Quay than the current prediction. (+9.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Gap Connahs Quay, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Colwyn Bay than the current prediction. (-8.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Colwyn Bay, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Gap Connahs Quay - Colwyn Bay Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Margetson K. (G) 26. Cook J. 20. Cowan D. 12. Franklin H. 28. Jones J. 34. Partridge C. 22. Poole D. 27. Redshaw F. 23. Sharif A. 8. West C. 18. Woodcock M.	51. Brown A. (G) 21. Astles R. 7. Cumming J. 23. Edwards A. 19. Hill M. 24. Hughes G. 12. Moore A. 4. Peate N. 11. Roberts E. 10. Robles L. 5. Sirrell L.
Substitutes
33. Bennett J. 35. Berry R. (G) 32. Hughes J. 10. Ismail Z. 42. Malcolm T. 9. Oswell J. 37. Waterhouse J.	9. Davies J. 30. Efan B. 3. Hart S. 22. Kargbo I. 45. Murphy L. (G) 14. Williams A. 20. Williams A.
Coaches
Disney J.	Wilde M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
31', Robles L. 🟨,
31', Cowan D. 🟨,
34', Roberts E. 🟨,
35', 1 - 0, West C. (Penalty Awarded),
38', Sirrell L. 🟨,
40', Woodcock M. 🟨,
41', 1 - 1, Cumming J. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Robles L. ↓, Kargbo I. ↑,
46', Edwards A. ↓, Davies J. ↑,
46', Sharif A. ↓, Oswell J. ↑,
64', Woodcock M. ↓, Ismail Z. ↑,
65', West C. 🟨,
66', Hill M. ↓, Williams A. ↑,
66', Cumming J. ↓, Williams A. ↑,
79', Partridge C. 🟨,
79', Roberts E. ↓, Hart S. ↑,
84', Franklin H. ↓, Bennett J. ↑,
84', Partridge C. ↓, Waterhouse J. ↑,

Preview

Connahs Quay is Qualified for Conference League (Qualification )

Colwyn Bay is Qualified for Cymru Premier (Conference League ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Connahs Quay won 3.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, Connahs Quay is a strong favorite.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Connahs Quay won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 21:12. (average 2.6:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Connahs Quay won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:4. (average 2:1).

Outrights of Welsh Cymru Premier for now

Connahs Q.: 3.14% Colwyn Bay: 1.63%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Colwyn Bay	12	7	1	4	21:15	6	22

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gap Connahs Quay
Welsh Cymru Premier
03.04.26	The New Saints - Gap Connahs Quay	2:1 ✺
29.03.26	Gap Connahs Quay - Barry Town United	1:1 ✺
21.03.26	Gap Connahs Quay - Pen-y-Bont	2:1 ✺
13.03.26	Caernarfon Town - Gap Connahs Quay	2:4 ✺
03.03.26	Gap Connahs Quay - The New Saints	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LTWWL
- Colwyn Bay
Welsh Cymru Premier
03.04.26	Colwyn Bay - Caernarfon Town	0:2 ✺
28.03.26	Pen-y-Bont - Colwyn Bay	0:0 ✺
20.03.26	The New Saints - Colwyn Bay	0:2 ✺
14.03.26	Colwyn Bay - Barry Town United	3:1 ✺
27.02.26	Caernarfon Town - Colwyn Bay	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.8 LTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru Premier
24.01.26	Colwyn Bay - Gap Connahs Quay	2:2
05.12.25	Gap Connahs Quay - Colwyn Bay	2:1
10.08.25	Colwyn Bay - Gap Connahs Quay	1:1
29.11.23	Colwyn Bay - Gap Connahs Quay	2:3
26.09.23	Gap Connahs Quay - Colwyn Bay	2:1
Welsh FA Cup
12.11.22	Gap Connahs Quay - Colwyn Bay	4:0
19.02.22	Gap Connahs Quay - Colwyn Bay	0:2

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