Match Info

Cymru Premier - Round 15

Date: 1 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Cyncoed Campus (Cardiff)

Referee: Kenny R. (Wal)


	Cardiff Metropolitan		Gap Connahs Quay

	1	X	2
	3.8	3.5	1.85
	3.22	3.77	1.96	Watch
	3.79	3.5	1.82
	4	3.5	1.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.7 ↑ (3.22)	3.57 ↑ (3.38)	1.87 ↓ (2.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cardiff Metropolitan
24.9%

Draw
25.8%

Gap Connahs Quay
49.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.4%

27.1%

44.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.2%

25.9%

46.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cardiff Metropolitan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Gap Connahs Quay has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cardiff Metropolitan than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gap Connahs Quay than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Cardiff Metropolitan - Gap Connahs Quay Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Seager S. (G) 2. Chubb M. 16. Craven C. (C) 7. Evans E. 10. Jones S. 8. Kabongo D. 14. Morris J. 19. Mwandwe L. 6. Reynolds R. 5. Richards S. 11. Roscrow A.	1. Margetson K. (G) 11. Bratley C. 26. Cook J. 20. Cowan D. 5. Edwards K. 14. Edwards N. 12. Franklin H. 17. Hughes R. 6. Nash B. (C) 22. Poole D. 8. West C.
Substitutes
3. Edwards J. 22. Matthews H. 17. Payne J. 9. Rees L. 32. Rees O. 21. Soady B. 4. Walsh L.	35. Berry R. (G) 19. Buah A. 10. Ismail Z. 9. Oswell J. 4. Roberts D. 37. Waterhouse J. 18. Woodcock M.
Coaches
Jenkins R.	Disney J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
4', Chubb M. 🟨,
4', 0 - 1, Hughes R. (Pen),
9', Craven C. 🟨,
12', Morris J. 🟨,
22', 0 - 2, Franklin H. ⚽,
25', Cowan D. 🟨,
30', Cook J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
50', Richards S. 🟨,
51', Franklin H. 🟨,
53', Richards S. ↓, Edwards J. ↑,
61', Margetson K. 🟨,
63', Roscrow A. ↓, Payne J. ↑,
63', Evans E. ↓, Rees L. ↑,
70', Cook J. ↓, Roberts D. ↑,
73', Mwandwe L. 🟨,
75', 0 - 3, Hughes R. (Pen),
81', Morris J. ↓, Walsh L. ↑,
81', West C. ↓, Woodcock M. ↑,
81', Franklin H. ↓, Oswell J. ↑,
88', Hughes R. ↓, Ismail Z. ↑,
88', Cowan D. ↓, Waterhouse J. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cardiff Metropolitan won 1.

In recent matches, both teams have secured multiple victories.

Connahs Quay might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Cardiff Metropolitan won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 15:30. (average 0.8:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Cardiff Metropolitan won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 9:12. (average 0.9:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cardiff Metropolitan University FC
Welsh Cymru Premier
25.10.25	Cardiff Metropolitan - Flint Town United	4:1 ✺
Welsh FA Cup
18.10.25	Cardiff Metropolitan - Taffs Well AFC	5:1 ✺
Welsh Cymru Premier
11.10.25	Colwyn Bay - Cardiff Metropolitan	0:0 ✺
07.10.25	Llanelli - Cardiff Metropolitan	1:3 ✺
04.10.25	Cardiff Metropolitan - Bala Town	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 WWTWW
- Gap Connahs Quay
Welsh Cymru Premier
25.10.25	Gap Connahs Quay - Haverfordwest County	3:3 ✺
Welsh FA Cup
18.10.25	Bala Town - Gap Connahs Quay	0:3 ✺
Welsh Cymru Premier
11.10.25	Briton Ferry Llansawel - Gap Connahs Quay	0:3 ✺
07.10.25	Bala Town - Gap Connahs Quay	1:3 ✺
04.10.25	Gap Connahs Quay - Llanelli	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru Premier
13.09.25	Gap Connahs Quay - Cardiff Metropolitan	1:1
02.11.24	Gap Connahs Quay - Cardiff Metropolitan	1:0
21.09.24	Cardiff Metropolitan - Gap Connahs Quay	2:1
06.04.24	Cardiff Metropolitan - Gap Connahs Quay	0:3
24.02.24	Gap Connahs Quay - Cardiff Metropolitan	2:1
04.11.23	Cardiff Metropolitan - Gap Connahs Quay	3:1
16.09.23	Gap Connahs Quay - Cardiff Metropolitan	4:0

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