Match Info

Cymru Premier - Championship Group - Round 27

Date: 3 March 2026, Tuesday

Location: Essity Stadium (Flint)

Referee: Griffith I. A. (Wal)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer app, BBC iPlayer, S4C Clic, S4C


	Gap Connahs Quay		The New Saints

	1	X	2
	3.55	3.5	1.92
	3.86	3.81	1.9
	3.51	3.74	1.96	Watch
	3.6	3.5	1.91
	3.81	3.56	1.8
	4.6	3.5	1.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.82 ↓ (5.17)	3.6 ↓ (4.05)	1.83 ↑ (1.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gap Connahs Quay
24.1%

Draw
25.6%

The New Saints
50.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.1%

23.1%

58.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.9%

22.8%

59.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gap Connahs Quay has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Gap Connahs Quay's performance.

The New Saints has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and The New Saints might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gap Connahs Quay than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Gap Connahs Quay that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for The New Saints than the current prediction. (+9.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that The New Saints could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10%	30%	60%

Gap Connahs Quay - The New Saints Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Connahs Quay will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). TNS will win (votes: 6 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for TNS: 45% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. TNS (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Margetson K. (G) 11. Bratley C. 26. Cook J. 20. Cowan D. 12. Franklin H. 21. Fregapane M. 17. Hughes R. 28. Jones J. (C) 4. Roberts D. 23. Sharif A. 8. West C.	30. Edwards J. (G) 6. Bodenham J. 8. Brobbel R. 4. Corness D. 22. Davies D. 18. Holden R. 37. Jefferies I. 16. McGahey H. 10. Redmond D. (C) 14. Williams D. 17. Williams J.
Substitutes
35. Berry R. (G) 14. Edwards N. 10. Ismail Z. 7. Kenny J. 5. Nash B. 27. Redshaw F. 18. Woodcock M.	7. Barton D. 19. Clark B. 12. Godsmark-Ford H. 38. Owen B. (G) 2. Owen J. 35. Summers B. 28. Wilson B.
Coaches
Disney J.	Harrison C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 2)
51', Roberts D. 🟨,
58', Roberts D. ↓, Edwards N. ↑,
64', Jefferies I. ↓, Barton D. ↑,
70', Brobbel R. ↓, Wilson B. ↑,
70', Holden R. ↓, Clark B. ↑,
77', Jones J. 🟨,
81', Edwards N. 🟨,
83', 0 - 1, Wilson B. (Penalty Awarded),
84', 🟨,
85', 1 - 1, Franklin H. ⚽,
89', Franklin H. ↓, Woodcock M. ↑,
90+5', 1 - 2, Davies D. ⚽,
90+5', Davies D. 🟨,
90+7', Sharif A. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Connahs Quay won 1.

Connahs Quay has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

TNS is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

TNS may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Connahs Quay has had a series of away games.

Recently, TNS has had a series of home games.

In this match, TNS is considered a favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Connahs Quay won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 19:45. (average 1:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Connahs Quay won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 11:19. (average 1:1.7).

Outrights of Welsh Cymru Premier for now

TNS: 75.6% Connahs Q.: 3.14%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	TNS	12	11	1	0	38:5	33	34

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gap Connahs Quay
Welsh Cymru Premier
21.02.26	Barry Town United - Gap Connahs Quay	1:0 ✺
14.02.26	Pen-y-Bont - Gap Connahs Quay	0:0 ✺
06.02.26	Gap Connahs Quay - Caernarfon Town	1:1 ✺
24.01.26	Colwyn Bay - Gap Connahs Quay	2:2 ✺
13.01.26	Caernarfon Town - Gap Connahs Quay	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LTTTT
- The New Saints
Welsh League Cup
28.02.26	The New Saints - Barry Town United	0:2 ✺
Welsh Cymru Premier
20.02.26	The New Saints - Caernarfon Town	2:1 ✺
13.02.26	Colwyn Bay - The New Saints	0:2 ✺
07.02.26	The New Saints - Pen-y-Bont	6:0 ✺
24.01.26	The New Saints - Barry Town United	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru Premier
31.12.25	Gap Connahs Quay - The New Saints	3:1
Welsh League Cup
10.09.25	Gap Connahs Quay - The New Saints	1:3
Welsh Cymru Premier
22.08.25	The New Saints - Gap Connahs Quay	3:0
Welsh FA Cup
04.05.25	The New Saints - Gap Connahs Quay	2:1
Welsh Cymru Premier
31.12.24	The New Saints - Gap Connahs Quay	2:1
30.10.24	Gap Connahs Quay - The New Saints	1:2
Welsh FA Cup
28.04.24	Gap Connahs Quay - The New Saints	2:1

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