The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Caernarfon Town 34.4%
Draw 25.7%
Gap Connahs Quay 39.9%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
31.8%
27%
41.2%
Our Initial ML Estimation
33.3%
25.8%
39.3%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Caernarfon Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)
Gap Connahs Quay has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Caernarfon Town than the current prediction. (-1.1%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gap Connahs Quay than the current prediction. (-0.6%)
Caernarfon Town - Gap Connahs Quay Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Roberts C. (G) 22. Cieslewicz A. 11. Clarke Z. 3. Jones M. 6. Lewis I. 23. Lock J. 7. Mendes P. 5. Mooney P. 2. Owen M. 27. Sears R. 14. Young B.
1. Margetson K. (G) 11. Bratley C. 26. Cook J. 20. Cowan D. 14. Edwards N. 12. Franklin H. 17. Hughes R. 28. Jones J. 22. Poole D. 23. Sharif A. 8. West C.
Substitutes
19. Bradley S. 9. Davies A. 8. Gosset D. 24. Harrison K. 25. Roberts O. 10. Thomas D. 13. Thomas H. (G)
35. Berry R. (G) 21. Fregapane M. 10. Ismail Z. 9. Oswell J. 27. Redshaw F. 4. Roberts D. 18. Woodcock M.
Coaches
Davies R.
Disney J.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 2)
1', 0 - 1, Franklin H. ⚽,
13', 1 - 1, Mooney P. ⚽,
36', 1 - 2, Hughes R. (Penalty Awarded),
37', Bratley C. 🟨,
41', Lewis I. 🟨,
45', Gosset D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
62', Jones J. 🟨,
67', 1 - 3, Edwards N. ⚽,
68', Young B. ↓, Davies A. ↑,
68', Gosset D. ↓, Owen R. ↑,
70', 1 - 4, Franklin H. ⚽,
74', Sharif A. 🟨,
79', Hughes R. ↓, Woodcock M. ↑,
85', Owen R. 🟨,
87', Bradley S. ↓, Thomas D. ↑,
89', West C. ↓, Roberts D. ↑,
90+4', 2 - 4, Owen R. ⚽,
90+4', Franklin H. ↓, Redshaw F. ↑,
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Caernarfon won 2.
Caernarfon has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Connahs Quay is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
Connahs Quay may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Caernarfon won 3 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 23:51. (average 1.2:2.6).
Including home matches between the teams, Caernarfon won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 9:19. (average 1.1:2.4).
Watch
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Roberts C. (G) 
Cieslewicz A. 
Clarke Z. 
Mendes P. 
Franklin H. 
Sharif A. 
Woodcock M. 
Disney J. 
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