Match Info

Cymru Premier - Championship Group - Round 25

Date: 14 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Bryntirion Park (Bridgend)

Referee: Markham-Jones B. (Wal)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer, S4C Clic, S4C


	Pen-y-Bont		Gap Connahs Quay

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.4	1.95
	3.76	3.45	1.99
	3.7	3.5	1.97	Watch
	3.6	3.3	1.95
	3.61	3.25	1.94
	3.66	3.25	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.64 ↑ (2.79)	3.36 ↑ (3.34)	1.97 ↓ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pen-y-Bont
25.4%

Draw
27.5%

Gap Connahs Quay
47%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.8%

27.4%

39.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.9%

26.7%

40.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pen-y-Bont has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Pen-y-Bont's form might have worsened.

Gap Connahs Quay has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Gap Connahs Quay's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pen-y-Bont than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Pen-y-Bont, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gap Connahs Quay than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Gap Connahs Quay, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Pen y Bont - Gap Connahs Quay Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Armstrong L. (G) 21. Baker A. 16. Borge B. 10. Cann E. 6. Davies M. 29. Green C. 18. Jones J. 8. Pritchard O. 4. Williams N. 5. Woodiwiss J. 7. Wood N.	1. Margetson K. (G) 26. Cook J. 20. Cowan D. 14. Edwards N. 17. Hughes R. 28. Jones J. 5. Nash B. 22. Poole D. 23. Sharif A. 8. West C. 18. Woodcock M.
Substitutes
54. Coe P. 33. Cvetkovic A. 11. Daley N. 24. Matthews A. (G) 3. Owen K. 14. Phillips I. 17. Warlow O.	35. Berry R. (G) 11. Bratley C. 21. Fregapane M. 10. Ismail Z. 7. Kenny J. 27. Redshaw F. 4. Roberts D.
Coaches
Griffiths R.	Disney J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
55', Poole D. ↓, Bratley C. ↑,
60', Williams N. ↓, Warlow O. ↑,
66', Hughes R. 🟨,
68', Sharif A. ↓, Kenny J. ↑,
75', Baker A. ↓, Cvetkovic A. ↑,
75', Cann E. ↓, Daley N. ↑,
83', Woodcock M. ↓, Ismail Z. ↑,
87', Wood N. ↓, Phillips I. ↑,
90+4', Woodiwiss J. 🟨,
90+4', 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pen-y-Bont won 2.

Recent performances by Pen-y-Bont have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Connahs Quay is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Connahs Quay may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Connahs Quay will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Pen-y-Bont won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 10:21. (average 0.5:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Pen-y-Bont won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 3:7. (average 0.3:0.7).

Outrights of Welsh Cymru Premier for now

Penybont: 7.42% Connahs Q.: 3.14%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Penybont	12	8	3	1	22:10	12	27

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pen-y-Bont FC
Welsh Cymru Premier
07.02.26	The New Saints - Pen-y-Bont	6:0 ✺
24.01.26	Pen-y-Bont - Caernarfon Town	0:0 ✺
13.01.26	Pen-y-Bont - Cardiff Metropolitan	1:1 ✺
01.01.26	Llanelli - Pen-y-Bont	0:1 ✺
26.12.25	Pen-y-Bont - Briton Ferry Llansawel	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LTTWT
- Gap Connahs Quay
Welsh Cymru Premier
06.02.26	Gap Connahs Quay - Caernarfon Town	1:1 ✺
24.01.26	Colwyn Bay - Gap Connahs Quay	2:2 ✺
13.01.26	Caernarfon Town - Gap Connahs Quay	2:2 ✺
03.01.26	Gap Connahs Quay - Barry Town United	3:1 ✺
31.12.25	Gap Connahs Quay - The New Saints	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.7 TTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru Premier
08.11.25	Gap Connahs Quay - Pen-y-Bont	4:0
30.08.25	Pen-y-Bont - Gap Connahs Quay	0:1
04.01.25	Pen-y-Bont - Gap Connahs Quay	1:0
15.09.24	Gap Connahs Quay - Pen-y-Bont	0:1
13.01.24	Pen-y-Bont - Gap Connahs Quay	0:1
30.09.23	Gap Connahs Quay - Pen-y-Bont	4:2
15.04.23	Gap Connahs Quay - Pen-y-Bont	0:0

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