Match Info

Europa League - Qualification - Final

Date: 28 August 2025, Thursday

Location: Cegeka Arena (Genk)

Referee: Massa D. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belgium	DAZN Pro League 1, Play Sports 1
Poland	sport.tvp.pl, TVP Sport app


	Genk		Lech Poznań

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.33	5.5	Watch
	1.37	5	7
	1.5	4.95	4.95	Watch
	1.48	4.75	5.85
	1.35	4.8	7
	1.54	4.44	5.64	Watch
	1.37	4.33	6.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↑ (1.37)	4.66 ↑ (4.4)	6.03 ↓ (6.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Genk
64.5%

Draw
20%

Lech Poznań
15.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.3%

20.3%

14.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.6%

19.6%

13.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Genk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Lech Poznań has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Genk than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
73.5%	17.6%	8.8%

Genk - Lech Poznań Predictions

Users Predictions: 33 users predict this event. Genk will win (votes: 25 - 75.8%). Lech will win (votes: 3 - 9.1%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 15.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Genk: 61.2% – 90.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Genk (votes: 6 - 60%). Lech (votes: 1 - 10%). Tie (votes: 3 - 30%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1 - Lech (2.18) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Genk (1.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 - Genk (2.18) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH -1 - Genk (2.15) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Genk (votes: 9 - 64.3%). Lech (votes: 2 - 14.3%). Tie (votes: 3 - 21.4%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Lawal T. (G) 27. Nkuba K. 44. Kongolo J. 6. Smets M. 19. Medina Y. 24. Sattlberger N. 20. Karetsas K. 17. Hrosovsky P. (C) 32. Adedeji-Sternberg N. 9. Oh Hyeon-Gyu 10. Ito J.	41. Mrozek B. (G) 4. Moutinho J. 72. Skrzypczak M. 27. Monka W. 15. Gurgul M. 6. Ouma T. 43. Kozubal A. (C) 56. Lisman K. 99. Rodriguez P. 77. Palma L. 19. Fiabema B.
Substitutes
21. Bangoura I. 23. Bibout A. 77. El Ouahdi Z. 8. Heynen B. 18. Kayembe J. 29. Mirisola R. 28. Mounganga L. (G) 34. Palacios A. 3. Sadick M. 14. Sor Y. 7. Steuckers J. 71. Stevens B. (G)	31. Bakowski K. (G) 21. Baranski B. 14. Bengtsson L. 3. Douglas A. 53. Dudek S. 24. Jagiello F. 33. Pruchniewski M. (G) 17. Szymczak F. 23. Thordarson G.
Coaches
Fink T.	Frederiksen N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
31', 1 - 0, Ito J. ⚽,
33', Monka W. 🟨,
35', Ito J. 🟨,
43', 1 - 1, Lisman K. ⚽, Fiabema B. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Kozubal A. ↓, Thordarson G. ↑,
46', Palma L. ↓, Bengtsson L. ↑,
56', 1 - 2, Bengtsson L. ⚽,
60', Skrzypczak M. ↓, Douglas A. ↑,
61', Fiabema B. ↓, Szymczak F. ↑,
67', Ito J. ↓, Steuckers J. ↑,
67', Hrosovsky P. ↓, Heynen B. ↑,
67', Adedeji-Sternberg N. ↓, Sor Y. ↑,
70', Rodriguez P. ↓, Baranski B. ↑,
78', Medina Y. ↓, Kayembe J. ↑,
90', Oh Hyeon-Gyu ↓, Mirisola R. ↑,

Preview

1st leg result: 5-1. 2nd leg.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Recently, Genk has had a series of away games.

Recently, Lech has had a series of home games.

In this match, Genk is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Genk won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:2. (average 3:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Genk won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Racing Genk
UEFA Europa League
21.08.25	Lech Poznań - Genk	1:5 ✺
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
15.08.25	Oud-Heverlee Leuven - Genk	1:2 ✺
10.08.25	Standard Liège - Genk	2:1 ✺
03.08.25	Genk - Royal Antwerp	1:1 ✺
27.07.25	Club Brugge - Genk	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WWLTL
- Lech Poznań
UEFA Europa League
21.08.25	Lech Poznań - Genk	1:5 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
16.08.25	Lech Poznań - Korona Kielce	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
12.08.25	Crvena Zvezda Belgrade - Lech Poznań	1:1 ✺
06.08.25	Lech Poznań - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade	1:3 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
02.08.25	Lech Poznań - Górnik Zabrze	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LTTLW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
21.08.25	Lech Poznań - Genk	1:5
16.08.18	Lech Poznań - Genk	1:2
09.08.18	Genk - Lech Poznań	2:0

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