Match Info

Jupiler Pro League - Conference League Group - Round 40

Date: 23 May 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Den Dreef (Heverlee) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Verbeke B. (Bel)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Belgium	20:45	DAZN Pro League 1, Sporza, Sporza
Japan	03:45	DAZN Japan


	Oud-Heverlee Leuven		Genk

	1	X	2
	4.2	3.9	1.73	Watch
	4.2	4.1	1.72	Watch
	4.29	4.15	1.82
	4.14	4.07	1.77
	3.9	3.75	1.75
	4.3	4.07	1.76	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.17 ↑ (3.46)	4.01 ↑ (3.82)	1.76 ↓ (2.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oud-Heverlee Leuven
22.7%

Draw
23.6%

Genk
53.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

27.6%

25%

47.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.4%

24.8%

47.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oud-Heverlee Leuven has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Genk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Genk's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oud-Heverlee Leuven than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Genk than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Genk, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	14.3%	71.4%

Oud Heverlee Leuven - Genk Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Leuven will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Genk will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Leysen T. (G) 28. Pletinckx E. 34. Nyakossi R. 5. Ominami T. 99. Opoku D. 8. Schrijvers S. 24. Lakomy L. 30. Akimoto T. 9. Traore A. K. 33. Maertens M. (C) 17. Vaesen K.	28. Brughmans L. (G) 77. El Ouahdi Z. 3. Sadick M. 44. Kongolo J. 19. Medina Y. 21. Bangoura I. 8. Heynen B. (C) 10. Ito J. 38. Heymans D. 30. Yokoyama A. 23. Bibout A.
Substitutes
21. Balikwisha W. 6. George W. 27. Gil O. 19. Ikwuemesi C. 39. Kaba S. 48. Kayo B. 10. Maziz Y. 16. Prevot M. (G) 63. Souanga C.	56. De Wannemacker A. 99. Erabi J. 26. Lawal T. (G) 29. Mirisola R. 27. Nkuba K. 34. Palacios A. 24. Sattlberger N. 14. Sor Y. 7. Steuckers J.
Coaches
Mazzu F.	Hayen N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
16', 0 - 1, Ito J. ⚽, Medina Y. (A),
33', 0 - 2, Yokoyama A. ⚽, El Ouahdi Z. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Opoku D. ↓, Gil O. ↑,
46', Vaesen K. ↓, Kaba S. ↑,
50', Kongolo J. 🟨,
52', Heymans D. 🟨,
64', Traore A. K. ↓, Maziz Y. ↑,
72', Heymans D. ↓, De Wannemacker A. ↑,
72', Ito J. ↓, Steuckers J. ↑,
76', Maertens M. ↓, George W. ↑,
81', Nyakossi R. ↓, Ikwuemesi C. ↑,
81', El Ouahdi Z. ↓, Nkuba K. ↑,
90+1', Bibout A. ↓, Mirisola R. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leuven won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Leuven may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Genk could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Leuven: Radelet T. (Injury)

There will not play in Genk: Heymans D. (Hamstring Injury) Karetsas K. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Leuven: Dussenne N. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Leuven won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 18:37. (average 0.9:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Leuven won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 12:16. (average 1.3:1.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Genk	9	4	3	2	18:13	5	15
16	Leuven	9	1	3	5	8:16	-8	6

Outrights of Belgian Jupiler Pro League for now

Genk: 5.5% Leuven: 0.43%

Last Results with these Odds

Oud-Heverlee Leuven - the odds 3.46 are the expected chance of winning is 27.57%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Oud-Heverlee Leuven
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
19.05.26	Charleroi - Oud-Heverlee Leuven	1:1 ✺
15.05.26	Oud-Heverlee Leuven - Royal Antwerp	3:0 ✺
08.05.26	Standard Liège - Oud-Heverlee Leuven	2:1 ✺
02.05.26	Westerlo - Oud-Heverlee Leuven	3:3 ✺
25.04.26	Oud-Heverlee Leuven - Charleroi	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 TWLTL
- Racing Genk
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
19.05.26	Genk - Royal Antwerp	0:0 ✺
16.05.26	Standard Liège - Genk	0:0 ✺
10.05.26	Genk - Westerlo	3:0 ✺
02.05.26	Charleroi - Genk	2:0 ✺
25.04.26	Genk - Standard Liège	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 TTWLT

Latest Head to Head

Belgian Jupiler Pro League
12.04.26	Genk - Oud-Heverlee Leuven	0:0
30.11.25	Genk - Oud-Heverlee Leuven	2:1
15.08.25	Oud-Heverlee Leuven - Genk	1:2
11.01.25	Genk - Oud-Heverlee Leuven	2:0
03.08.24	Oud-Heverlee Leuven - Genk	3:1
31.01.24	Oud-Heverlee Leuven - Genk	2:1
12.11.23	Genk - Oud-Heverlee Leuven	3:1

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