Match Info

Challenger Pro League - Round 15

Date: 30 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Cegeka Arena (Genk)

Referee: De Keyzer T. (Bel)


	Genk U23		ROC de Charleroi-Marchienne

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.3	2.5	Watch
	2.45	3.4	2.62	Watch
	2.52	3.6	2.67
	2.28	3.53	2.86	Watch
	2.51	3.46	2.62	Watch
	2.5	3.33	2.54
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.44 ↑ (2.28)	3.44 ↓ (3.53)	2.64 ↓ (2.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Genk U23
37.9%

Draw
26.9%

ROC de Charleroi-Marchienne
35.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.9%

26.4%

32.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43%

25.1%

31%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Genk U23 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ROC de Charleroi-Marchienne has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Genk U23 than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Genk U23, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for ROC de Charleroi-Marchienne than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

Genk U23 - ROC de Charleroi Marchienne Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
71. Stevens B. (G) 2. Pierre K. 85. Kang Min-Woo 73. Mbavu E. 65. Akpan C. 67. Camara A. 86. Haroun K. 50. Beniangba V. 11. Oyen L. 56. De Wannemacker A. (C) 23. Bibout A.	23. Herrerin I. (G) 55. Corneillie V. 12. Ramalho J. 3. Ndedi Kegne K. J. 49. Kima Beyissa K. 2. Sarkic O. 17. Cachbach M. 6. Kis K. (C) 13. Medfai M. 81. Dailly N. 8. Lake T.
Substitutes
72. Barry A. 66. Coenen J. 70. Decresson L. 22. Manguelle B. 53. Mocsnik M. 79. Nzoko D. 84. Sarfo E. 80. Toure S. 82. Vliegen O. (G)	18. Berberi R. 7. Cisse M. 38. Diallo T. 11. Florica L. 10. Ion R. 4. Jahic H. 28. Spago E. 5. Thea A. 1. Vitasek D. (G)
Coaches
Van Rumst J.	Mercier A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
18', 0 - 1, Lake T. ⚽, Dailly N. (A),
19', Akpan C. 🟨,
26', 1 - 1, Beniangba V. ⚽, Oyen L. (A),
30', Camara A. 🟨,
31', Dailly N. 🟨,
34', 2 - 1, Bibout A. ⚽, Mbavu E. (A),
45+5', Kima Beyissa K. ↓, Cisse M. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 3)
51', 3 - 1, Camara A. ⚽, Oyen L. (A),
58', 3 - 2, Corneillie V. ⚽,
59', Corneillie V. 🟨,
64', De Wannemacker A. 🟨,
67', Kang Min-Woo ↓, Manguelle B. ↑,
71', Sarkic O. ↓, Diallo T. ↑,
71', Lake T. ↓, Berberi R. ↑,
74', Manguelle B. 🟨,
76', 3 - 3, Dailly N. ⚽, Berberi R. (A),
80', Haroun K. ↓, Sarfo E. ↑,
80', Akpan C. ↓, Mocsnik M. ↑,
80', Camara A. ↓, Nzoko D. ↑,
86', Beniangba V. ↓, Decresson L. ↑,
90+1', 3 - 4, Medfai M. ⚽, Dailly N. (A),
90+3', Medfai M. ↓, Thea A. ↑,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 13 and 16 in the zone Relegation).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Genk U23 may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Genk U23 has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Genk U23
Belgian Challenger Pro League
22.11.25	Gent U23 - Genk U23	0:0 ✺
01.11.25	RWDM Brussels - Genk U23	1:1 ✺
25.10.25	Eupen - Genk U23	2:1 ✺
18.10.25	Genk U23 - Francs Borains	3:1 ✺
05.10.25	RFC Liège - Genk U23	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 TTLWL
- ROC de Charleroi-Marchienne
Belgian Challenger Pro League
23.11.25	ROC de Charleroi-Marchienne - Beerschot Wilrijk	1:2 ✺
09.11.25	Francs Borains - ROC de Charleroi-Marchienne	0:1 ✺
01.11.25	ROC de Charleroi-Marchienne - RFC Liège	1:1 ✺
Belgian Cup
28.10.25	Dender EH - ROC de Charleroi-Marchienne	4:2 ET ✺
Belgian Challenger Pro League
25.10.25	Brugge U23 - ROC de Charleroi-Marchienne	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.6 LWTLT

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