Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 38

Date: 19 May 2023, Friday

Location: Stadio Luigi Ferraris (Genoa)

Referee: Rutella D. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Greece	Nova Sports
Italy	Sky Sport


	Genoa		Bari

	1	X	2
	1.55	3.8	7	Watch
	1.55	3.9	6
	1.55	3.85	6
	1.58	4.06	6.59
	1.75	3.5	4.75
	1.55	4.1	5.95	Watch
	1.54	3.95	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↓ (1.91)	3.88 ↑ (3.62)	6.04 ↑ (4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Genoa
59.9%

Draw
24.4%

Bari
15.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.8%

26.4%

23.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.4%

26.1%

23.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Genoa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Genoa's performance.

Bari has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Bari might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Genoa than the current prediction. (-9.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Genoa that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bari than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Bari could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	35%	25%

Genoa - Bari Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Genoa will win (votes: 8 - 40%). Bari will win (votes: 5 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 35%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Genoa: 18.5% – 61.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Genoa has the most likely position - 2 (100%), project points - 73, currently - 71, not chance of relegated, not chance of prom. playoffs.

Bari has the most likely position - 3 (100%), project points - 66, currently - 65, not chance of relegated, already of prom. playoffs, a chance of promoted (36%), not chance of win league.

This event has quality 44, small importance 11, small match rating 27. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Right away both teams are in a satisfying form.

In this match Genoa is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Genoa won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Genoa CFC
Italian Serie B
13.05.23	Frosinone - Genoa	3:2 ✺
06.05.23	Genoa - Ascoli	2:1 ✺
01.05.23	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Genoa	0:0 ✺
22.04.23	Cittadella - Genoa	0:1 ✺
15.04.23	Genoa - Perugia	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LWTWW
- AS Bari
Italian Serie B
13.05.23	Bari - Reggina	1:0 ✺
06.05.23	Modena - Bari	1:1 ✺
01.05.23	Bari - Cittadella	1:1 ✺
23.04.23	Pisa - Bari	1:2 ✺
15.04.23	Bari - Como	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WTTWT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
26.12.22	Bari - Genoa	1:2

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