Match Info

ITALY: SERIE B - ROUND 33

Date: 15 April 2023, Saturday

Location: Stadio Luigi Ferraris (Genoa)

Referee: Marinelli L. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Sky Sport


	Genoa		Perugia

	1	X	2
	1.5	3.75	8	Watch
	1.52	3.8	6.75
	1.55	3.75	6.4
	1.56	3.95	7.41
	1.52	3.94	6.85	Watch
	1.51	3.8	6.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↑ (1.5)	3.83 ↑ (3.8)	7.04 ↑ (6.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Genoa
61.9%

Draw
24.7%

Perugia
13.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.9%

24.5%

13.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.7%

23.8%

13.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Genoa have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Perugia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Genoa than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Perugia than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Genoa - Perugia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and outsider (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A and 17 in the zone Serie B (Play Out: )).

Genoa has the most likely position - 2 (69.28%), project points - 71, currently - 61, not chance of relegated, a small chance of prom. playoffs (13%), a good chance of promoted (92%), a chance of win league (17%).

Perugia has the most likely position - 16 (16.59%), project points - 42, currently - 34, a chance of relegated (36%), a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), a very small chance of promoted (<1%), not chance of win league.

This event has quality 37, importance 50, match rating 44. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Genoa in the latest game got a series victories and it is in a perfect shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Perugia is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Genoa could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Genoa is indisputable favorite.

Our prediction for today's Genoa to win the game is with odds 1.53.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Genoa won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Genoa won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 7-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Genoa CFC
Italian Serie B
10.04.23	Como - Genoa	2:2 ✺
31.03.23	Genoa - Reggina	1:0 ✺
18.03.23	Brescia - Genoa	0:3 ✺
12.03.23	Genoa - Ternana	1:0 ✺
06.03.23	Genoa - Nuova Cosenza	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 TWWWW
- Perugia Calcio
Italian Serie B
10.04.23	Perugia - Modena	0:1 ✺
05.04.23	Perugia - Reggina	1:3 ✺
01.04.23	Perugia - Frosinone	1:1 ✺
18.03.23	Cittadella - Perugia	0:2 ✺
05.03.23	Südtirol-Alto Adige - Perugia	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
27.11.22	Perugia - Genoa	1:0
Coppa Italia
13.08.21	Genoa - Perugia	3:2
01.12.16	Genoa - Perugia	4:3 ET

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