Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 2 - Round 6

Date: 11 October 2025, Saturday


	Gernika		Amorebieta

	1	X	2
	2.58	3	2.58
	2.71	2.96	2.8
	1.07	7.41	25.00	Watch
	2.63	3.02	2.66
	2.38	3.35	2.64
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.27 ↓ (2.41)	3.95 ↑ (3.26)	7.14 ↑ (2.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gernika
52.8%

Draw
30.4%

Amorebieta
16.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.7%

27.9%

34.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.6%

27.8%

34.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gernika has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Gernika's performance.

Amorebieta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-17.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Amorebieta might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gernika than the current prediction. (-15.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Gernika that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Amorebieta than the current prediction. (+17.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Amorebieta could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Gernika - Amorebieta Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
72', 1 - 0, Okolo ⚽,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 9 and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gernika won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Recently, Gernika has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Gernika won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 6:11. (average 0.7:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Gernika won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 0.4:0.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Amorebieta - the odds 2.64 are the expected chance of winning is 34.42%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gernika Club
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
04.10.25	SD Logroñés - Gernika	1:1 ✺
28.09.25	Gernika - Alfaro	1:0 ✺
20.09.25	Náxara - Gernika	1:4 ✺
13.09.25	Utebo - Gernika	3:1 ✺
07.09.25	Zaragoza B - Gernika	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 TWWLL
- SD Amorebieta
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
05.10.25	Amorebieta - Basconia	2:1 ✺
28.09.25	SD Logroñés - Amorebieta	1:1 ✺
21.09.25	Amorebieta - Beasain	2:1 ✺
14.09.25	Ebro - Amorebieta	0:0 ✺
Spanish Copa Federacion
10.09.25	Zamora - Amorebieta	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WTWTL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
18.08.22	Gernika - Amorebieta	1:0
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
02.03.19	Amorebieta - Gernika	3:1
12.10.18	Gernika - Amorebieta	1:1
24.02.18	Amorebieta - Gernika	1:2
07.10.17	Gernika - Amorebieta	0:0
18.02.17	Gernika - Amorebieta	0:0
01.10.16	Amorebieta - Gernika	3:1

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