Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 1 - Round 7

Date: 17 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Spain	18:00	Footballclub


	Gernika		Amorebieta

	1	X	2
	2.20	2.95	3.10
	2.20	2.85	3.20
	2.28	2.99	3.33
	2.27	2.97	3.23	Watch
	2.20	2.85	3.20
	2.29	3.12	3.22
	2.23	2.95	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↑ (2.2)	2.95 ↓ (3.18)	3.22 ↑ (3.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gernika
40.8%

Draw
30.9%

Amorebieta
28.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

41.8%

28.9%

29.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.5%

27.8%

28.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gernika has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Amorebieta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gernika than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Amorebieta than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Gernika - Amorebieta Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
23', 1 - 0, Vieites Blazquez K. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
85', Ortiz J. 🟨,
87', 1 - 1, Muguruza J. ⚽,
90', 1 - 2, Intxausti A. ⚽,

Preview

Two mid-table squads battle for vital points to solidify their season (ranked 8th and 10th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gernika won 3.

Both teams have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Gernika holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 11 head-to-head meetings, Gernika has recorded 4 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 9:12 (averaging 0.8:1.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Gernika against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss, with 3:3 goals (averaging 0.5:0.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Amorebieta	8	4	1	3	10:8	2	13
10	Gernika	8	2	4	2	15:9	6	10

Last Results with these Odds

Gernika - the odds 2.2 are the expected chance of winning is 41.84%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Amorebieta - the odds 3.15 are the expected chance of winning is 29.22%, but this team recently wins 10% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gernika Club
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
11.10.26	Alavés B - Gernika	1:1 ✺
04.10.26	Gernika - Sestao	1:2 ✺
27.09.26	Coruxo - Gernika	1:1 ✺
20.09.26	Gernika - Llanera	4:0 ✺
13.09.26	Arosa - Gernika	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17 TLTWW
- SD Amorebieta
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
10.10.26	Amorebieta - Portugalete	1:2 ✺
03.10.26	Atlético Astorga - Amorebieta	0:1 ✺
26.09.26	Amorebieta - Ourense CF	0:1 ✺
20.09.26	Rayo Cantabria - Amorebieta	0:2 ✺
13.09.26	Bergantiños - Amorebieta	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
11.04.26	Amorebieta - Gernika	1:2
11.10.25	Gernika - Amorebieta	1:0
Club Friendly
18.08.22	Gernika - Amorebieta	1:0
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
02.03.19	Amorebieta - Gernika	3:1
12.10.18	Gernika - Amorebieta	1:1
24.02.18	Amorebieta - Gernika	1:2
07.10.17	Gernika - Amorebieta	0:0

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