Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 6

Date: 21 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos (Barcelos)

Referee: Macedo C. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Portugal	Sport TV1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine


	Gil Vicente		Estoril Praia

	1	X	2
	1.96	3.3	4	Watch
	2.02	3.25	3.7	Watch
	2.02	3.4	4.08
	1.19	5.69	22.02	Watch
	2.03	3.43	4.09	Watch
	2.41	3.1	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↓ (2.58)	3.7 ↑ (3.28)	6.82 ↑ (2.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gil Vicente
55.3%

Draw
29%

Estoril Praia
15.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.7%

28.9%

34.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.6%

29%

34.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gil Vicente has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+18.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Gil Vicente's performance.

Estoril Praia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-18.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Estoril Praia might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gil Vicente than the current prediction. (-18.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Gil Vicente that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Estoril Praia than the current prediction. (+18.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Estoril Praia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71%	16.1%	12.9%

Gil Vicente - Estoril Praia Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Gil Vicente will win (votes: 22 - 73.3%). Estoril will win (votes: 4 - 13.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 13.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gil Vicente: 57.5% – 89.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Gil Vicente (1.96) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Gil Vicente will win (13 of 13 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Gil Vicente (votes: 14 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
42. da Silva Ventura A. (G) 2. Ze Carlos (C) 39. Buatu J. 4. Elimbi M. 3. Konan G. 95. Garcia S. 5. Caseres F. 77. Murilo de Souza 10. Esteves L. 27. Moreira A. 9. Pablo	1. Robles J. (G) 44. Boma K. 4. Ferro 25. Bacher F. 2. Sanchez R. 10. Holsgrove J. 7. Lominadze N. 55. Parente T. 99. Guitane R. 14. Begraoui Y. 12. Carvalho J. (C)
Substitutes
17. Bermejo 48. Espigares A. 11. Fernandes J. 32. Fernandez M. 99. Figueira Daniel (G) 20. Hevertton S. 45. Mutombo J. 89. Varela G. 6. Ze Carlos	22. Carvalho P. 17. Garcia F. 18. Israelov O. 19. Lacximicant A. 9. Marques A. 45. Patrick de Paula 70. Peixinho 21. Pizzi 16. Turk M. (G)
Coaches
Peixoto C.	Cathro I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
15', 1 - 0, Pablo (Pen),
40', Guitane R. ↓, Garcia F. ↑,
40', Parente T. ↓, Patrick de Paula ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
55', Moreira A. ↓, Fernandes J. ↑,
55', Sanchez R. 🟨,
60', Begraoui Y. ↓, Marques A. ↑,
66', Caseres F. 🟨,
73', Caseres F. ↓, Ze Carlos ↑,
78', Lominadze N. 🟨,
79', Pablo 🟨,
80', Pablo ↓, Varela G. ↑,
80', Murilo de Souza ↓, Bermejo ↑,
80', Ze Carlos ↓, Hevertton S. ↑,
82', Lominadze N. ↓, Lacximicant A. ↑,
82', Ferro ↓, Carvalho P. ↑,
86', 2 - 0, Fernandes J. ⚽, Varela G. (A),

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 6 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gil Vicente won 2.

Gil Vicente is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Estoril has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Gil Vicente may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Gil Vicente will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Gil Vicente: Bamba M. (Inactive) Carlos Eduardo (Inactive) Toure T. (Inactive)

There will not play in Estoril: Jandro (Inactive) Xeka (Injury)

There are questionable in Estoril: Costa G. (Inactive) Tsoungui A. (Knee Injury)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Gil Vicente won 3 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 16:21. (average 1.1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Gil Vicente won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:10. (average 1.1:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gil Vicente
Liga Portugal
14.09.25	Braga - Gil Vicente	0:1 ✺
29.08.25	Gil Vicente - Moreirense	2:0 ✺
24.08.25	Famalicão - Gil Vicente	0:0 ✺
18.08.25	Gil Vicente - Porto	0:2 ✺
09.08.25	Nacional - Gil Vicente	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.7 WWTLW
- Estoril Praia
Liga Portugal
13.09.25	Estoril Praia - AVS	3:1 ✺
06.09.25	Estoril Praia - Santa Clara	0:1 ✺
31.08.25	Tondela - Estoril Praia	2:2 ✺
16.08.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Estoril Praia	3:2 ✺
11.08.25	Estoril Praia - Estrela da Amadora	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 WLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
01.02.25	Gil Vicente - Estoril Praia	1:2
25.08.24	Estoril Praia - Gil Vicente	0:0
18.02.24	Estoril Praia - Gil Vicente	1:3
17.09.23	Gil Vicente - Estoril Praia	5:3
31.03.23	Estoril Praia - Gil Vicente	1:0
07.10.22	Gil Vicente - Estoril Praia	0:1
04.03.22	Gil Vicente - Estoril Praia	0:0

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